Nordstrom (JWN): Low Expectations for Anniversary Sale - Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst, Neely Tamminga, noted that the Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) Anniversary Sale kicks off this week (pre-shop begins July 13; public sale, July 22). The Anniversary Sale is a big deal because the weekly sales volume outpaces December's average weekly sales. It is also a big deal because the fashion presented in the Anniversary Sale provides powerful insights into consumer demand for fashion, specifically for fall fashion.

Expectations are low and the analyst is currently modeling a -4.2% comp for FQ2. This year’s catalog shows an emphasis on denim, which is encouraging to the analyst for this important fall category. The average price point is down slightly ($88 vs. $92 LY) but it remains above historical levels. There are signs that lackluster sales could be an issue during "the sale." Last month the company seemingly kicked off an unplanned (and incremental) "10 points per dollar spent" promotional day for the 4.5M+ customers who use their Rewards program. More recently, there was a promotion offering a $10 certificate to spend at the Anniversary Sale when becoming a new rewards member.

No change to the Neutral rating or price target of $45.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Nordstrom click here. For more ratings news on Nordstrom click here.

Shares of Nordstrom closed at $40.32 yesterday.

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