Winners and Losers in Piper Jaffray's Media Quarterly Preview (AMCX) (SNI) (DISCA)

Stan Meyers, Research Analyst at Piper Jaffray, published an earnings preview highlighting AMC (NASDAQ: AMCX) as ratings winner and Discovery (NASDAQ: DISCA) and Scripps (NYSE: SNI) which saw declines. No changes to the ratings or the price target on AMCX but reduced expectations in his DCF weighed on DSCA and SNI and PTs were reduced accordingly.

AMC's 3Q ratings were up 20% on revenue-weighted basis. Flagship AMC Network, WEtv, IFC and SundanceTV contributed nicely in the quarter, up 29%, 18%, 1% and 31%, respectively. Q3 earnings will dominated by strong performance of the Fear The Walking Dead and to a smaller extent Humans. o model an incremental $55M in domestic ad revenue from FearTWD, we see upside from sizable L+3 audience, Talking Dead specials and FearTWD international release across its networks.

Discovery networks's ratings are down 3% in Q3, as TLC continues to struggle. Discovery had a robust Shark Week that should translate well internationally. TLC and Animal Planet were down 20% and 6%, offset by positive momentum at ID that was up 21%. Myers revised his 5 year DCF and reduced the price target from $35 to $32.

Scripps Interactive's networks ratings were down 1%. HGTV continued its growth trajectory ending the quarter up 4% in primetime and was #9 among top-rated cable networks. However, Food Network and the Travel channel continued to struggle with ratings down 8% and 16%, respectively. Scripps finalized its TVN acquisition and should provide some color on its integration progress. Myers reduced his price target from $73 to $62.

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