Amgen's (AMGN) 'On-Body' IMS Sales Starting to Pick Up - RBC Capital

RBC Capital commented on Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) today, saying "on-body" IMS sales are starting to pick up.

Analyst Michael Yee commented:

Neulasta "on-body" IMS sales are $24M (+62% mo/mo), representing 8% of total Neulasta IMS sales now (See exhibit inside tracking the sales)

• Neulasta total sales are tracking (avg capture rate of 106%) toward $927M USA vs cons $920M USA
• Importantly, the Neulasta "on-body" sales have started picking up since launch in February - jumping from 3-5% of total Neulasta sales to 8% in May. As the on-body device targets 60% of Neulasta sales that are for pts who need it one day after chemotherapy (and dont have to come back to the hospital), this would suggest market share is 13-14% of the "target" market it's going after.
• We'll continue to track this as we'd like to see "on-body" sales get to 20-25% target market share by end of the year to give some comfort into conversion before biosimilars start to possibly come on in 2016 (Apotex). See below -- where Teva Granix has captured 16% share from AMGN in a year so this could be an example of what is theoretically possible for Neulasta if "on-body" doesn't rapidly convert. AMGN says it will defend its share but at a minimum the historical pricing power would move away....
• The bear argument is that consensus Neulasta sales are too high for AMGN in 2016 around -8% Y/Y but Granix got 16% share of Neupogen in first year.... AMGN: Neupogen and TEVA Granix have been duelling for the short-acting G-CSF space and Granix as captured 15-16% share over the last year but this has been flat/stable now. May IMS sales for Granix are $11.6M (+1% mo/mo), and still around 16% share of the combined G-CSF market.

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