U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Said up 18% in 2014; Nissan, Tesla Top Sellers in Dec. - Cowen (TSLA) (F)

Cowen and Company offered the following monthly recap of electrified vehicle sales in the U.S. for December 2014.

Analyst Jeffrey Osborne commented

Our analysis suggests 11,164 EVs were sold in December, up 19% from November, in the U.S. For the full year, EV sales totaled 118,259, up 18% from 2013. EVs made up 0.75% of SAAR this month, up 4bps from the prior month, with hybrids at 2.22%, down 18bps from the prior month. The best-selling vehicles domestically were Nissan Leaf (3,102), Chevy Volt (1,490), Tesla Model S (1,900E) and BMW i3 (1,013), with Ford Fusion Energi (789) recovering from its 50% drop since August, when 1,222 units sold.

Key points:

• China has drafted an extension of its EV / hybrid / fuel cell vehicle subsidy through 2020, though foreign manufactured vehicles will remain disqualified. Qualified EV cars will be eligible for a 55,000 Yuan subsidy (~$8,800).
• The Leaf closed the year breaking the Volt's 2012 record for U.S. sales in a calendar year, surpassing 30,000 units in 2014, up 34% from 2013. This month was also a December record, up 22% y/y. Nissan noted that U.S. inventory, though, closed out the month down ~1,000 units, ahead of a slower period in January.
• Chevy Volt sales remained depressed at 1,490 sold in December, up 12% since November, but down 38% y/y, due to anticipation for the 2016 model, which debuts in Detroit on January 12th. The '16 Volt will launch in 2H15 and is expected to compete with future rival launches of the Tesla Model 3 and the 2017 Nissan Leaf.
• We reiterate that Polypore's involvement in the BMW i-series has gone from zero presence 7 months ago to one of the best-selling EV platforms overall, with 6,092 i3 vehicles sold since May. December sales of 1,013 units were up from 816 in the prior month, though a continued shortage in carbon fiber raw materials may cause factory delays and a slump in January sales. Furthermore, PG&E is launching a demand response program for electrified vehicles and has chosen BMW for its pilot. Select BMW i3 owners will benefit as BMW passes along the economic incentive.
• Sales of recent launches improved, with the new VW's e-Golf doubling to 237 units sold in its second month, while the Porsche Cayenne's second month resulted in 55 sales. 555 units of BMW's i8 were sold in the four months since its launch.

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