IMPROVE-IT Success Seen as Positive for PCSK9 Approvals, Says Deutsche Bank (MRK) (REGN) (AMGN)

Merck's (NYSE: MRK) IMPROVE-IT success is positive of early PCSK9 approvals, said Deutsche Bank analyst Robyn Karnauskas. Companies mentioned in the report included Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) and Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN). Amgen's price target was increased to $192 (from $190).

"PCSK9s are mAbs that have been shown to reduce LCL-c more than Statins alone. AMGN and REGN are both developing assets (Evolocumab and Alirocumab respectively). Given that IMPROVE-IT showed a positive link between greater LDL-c lowering and better CV outcomes, we see this as a positive for PCSK9s as they lower LDL-c more than Statins, and thus should produce greater risk reduction for long-term CV events," said Karnauskas.

"We see both assets being used to treat Statin intolerant patients, in secondary prevention, and for the HeFH population. We see both AMGN’s Evolocumab and REGN’s Alirocumab being approved by 2H15. We note that AMGN is currently suing REGN for patent infringement and to essentially block the launch of the drug. We also note that REGN purchased a priority review voucher from BioMarin to help accelerate approval of their asset and bring their timelines in line w/ AMGN," continued the analyst. "We conservatively see peak sales at ~$3B for each drug. We see potential pricing upside for both assets as we currently model cost at ~$4k/ yr. Each $1k adds ~$18/sh to our REGN DCF and ~$6/sh to our AMGN DCF."

NOTE: Alirocumab is being developed by Regeneron together with Sanofi (NYSE: SNY).

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Amgen click here. For more ratings news on Amgen click here.

Shares of Amgen closed at $157.68 yesterday.

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