David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 11/04 Nov 4, 2008 10:33AM

Fully Discounted?

For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the stock market did next to nothing during the session yesterday as the intraday range of the Dow came in at a paltry 155 points. This despite some pretty glum economic data, new worries over Goldman Sachs (GS), and more carnage in the auto sector. Thus, the bulls can be heard crowing about the idea that the vicious decline seen in October has fully discounted all the bad news that is likely to come out.

As we highlighted in our weekend report, it does appear that the drop of 42.3% on the Dow over the past year and the 45.8% decline on the S&P 500 is enough to discount a typical recession. We pointed out if one looks back at history’s Bear Markets that were accompanied by a recession (but not a depression); the average decline came in ...


September Factory Orders Fall 2.5%, Versus The Consensus of -0.8% Nov 4, 2008 10:01AM

September Factory ...


Trading Radar for 11/04: Virgin Mobile (VM), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), UBS (UBS), Yamana (AUY) Report; Auto/Truck Sales for October Due Nov 3, 2008 03:03PM

The Trading Radar highlights key earnings and economic announcements for tomorrow's trading session:

Before Market Opens:
Economics:
12am ET
Auto/Truck Sales for OctoberEarnings:
Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) - consensus EPS $0.69, revs $15.98B
Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) - consensus EPS $0.31, revs ...


Top 10 News Items 9/29-10/3: Financial Rescue Plan Approved, Markets Tank; Citigroup, Wells Fargo Battle for Wachovia; Buffett Surprises Wall Street with $3B Investment in GE Oct 3, 2008 04:10PM

This is a recap of this week's major news on Wall Street:

1. Following weekend long discussions on Capitol Hill, Wall Street began this week with high hopes. Politicians in Washington had finally agreed on an acceptable rescue plan for the US financial system and the vote Monday would approve the bill, averting a recession and saving the US economy... right? Right? WRONG! The bill was presented to the US House of Representatives and promptly voted down mid-day. Traders were devastated; the Dow Jones tumbled 777 points, making Monday's decline the largest single day slide in the history of the stock market. All was not lost, however. Just after the bill failed, regulators were already considering what could be changed within the legislation in order for House members to pass it. By Thursday, amendments to the plan were proposed and ...


David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 10/03 Oct 3, 2008 10:17AM

 Roll Call

Here’s a link to listen to an Audio Version of the report:

In case lawmakers in the House of Representatives have any question about what kind of “economic response” they might get if they dink around and screw up this vote again today, Thursday served as a gentle reminder that things are NOT going to be pretty in the financial markets if action is not taken – and soon. While Thursday’s -350 point decline paled in comparison to Monday’s nearly -800 point panic, it is worth noting that the NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and S&P Mid-cap indices all dove to new lows on Thursday.

It may be true that many of the politicians elected to serve their constituents in Washington may not have a firm grasp on the concept of how the commercial paper market works (or in this case, doesn’t work) and they probably don’t have a clue how ...




Oct 2, 2008 05:17PM Stocks Fall Ahead of House Bailout Vote On Slowdown Fears
Oct 2, 2008 10:00AM Factory Orders Come In Down 4%, Versus The Consensus of -3%.
Oct 1, 2008 03:10PM Trading Radar for 10/2: Marriott (MAR), Global Payments (GPN), Constellation Brands (STZ) Report; Initial Jobless Claims, Factor Orders Due
Sep 4, 2008 10:00AM David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 9/4
Sep 3, 2008 10:01AM Factory Orders (July) Come in a 1.3%, versus the consensus of 1%
Sep 2, 2008 02:54PM Trading Radar for 9/3: Joy Global (JOYG), Hovnanian (HOV), Guess? (GES), Staples (SPLS) Report; ADP Employment Report, Factory Orders for July, Auto/Truck Sales for August Due
Aug 4, 2008 10:01AM Factory Orders come in a +1.7%, versus the consensus of +0.7%
Aug 1, 2008 04:03PM Trading Radar for 8/4: Anadarko (APC), Humana (HUM), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) Report; Personal Spending, Factory Orders for June Due
Jul 2, 2008 10:02AM Factory Orders for May: 0.6%, vs Consensus of 0.5%
Jul 1, 2008 05:28PM Trading Radar 7/2: Family Dollar (FDO), Acuity Brands (AYI), WD40 (WDFC) Report; ADP Employment Report, Factory Orders Due
Jun 3, 2008 10:22AM David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 6/03
Jun 3, 2008 10:01AM Factory Orders come in at +1.1%, versus the consensus of -0.1%
May 2, 2008 10:01AM Factory Orders come in +1.4%, versus the consensus of +0.2%
May 1, 2008 05:55PM Trading Radar 5/2: Chevron (CVX), Agrium (AGU), Viacom (VIA), Nortel (NT) Report; Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders Due
Apr 1, 2008 05:16PM Trading Radar 4/02: Best Buy (BBY), Monsanto (MON) and Research In Motion (RIMM) Report Results
Mar 5, 2008 10:02AM Factory Orders come in down 2.5%, in-line with the consensus
Feb 5, 2008 09:52AM David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 2/5
Feb 4, 2008 10:43AM David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 2/4
Feb 4, 2008 10:01AM Factory Orders comes in at 2.3% versus the consensus of 2.5%
Jan 4, 2008 10:11AM David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 01/04
Jan 3, 2008 10:01AM November Factory Orders come in at 1.5%, above the consensus of 0.5%