David Moenning

Once again, it was a falling U.S. dollar that helped the stock market advance smartly yesterday. However this time around, the market had some help as traders found a handful of reasons to push the major indices up through important resistance areas and on to new cycle highs.

To be sure, it was the dollar that was the focal point at the outset of trading. With the greenback falling to its lowest level since August 2008, the carry trade took on new life as the appetite for “risk assets,” particularly in the area of commodity stocks, appeared to surge.

And once again, it was what wasn’t said that helped push the dollar to its second lowest level ever. As was the case with the G20 meeting, officials at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) meeting did pledge support for stimulus measures and did NOT utter a single word about the dollar’s ...

Good morning. With stocks having skyrocketed on Monday in response to the G-20 saying it was okay to continue shorting the dollar; one might have expected to see some profit-taking on Tuesday. After all, the S&P had run up +5.4% in just six days and the Dow had broken out to a fresh new cycle high. But instead of a scary pullback that might have given the bears some hope, the market simply paused yesterday and awaited fresh inputs.

Tuesday was the kind of day that gives those of us trying to keep the commentary on the action interesting a bit of a challenge. In short, the dollar was up a little and while the Dow managed to forge ahead to another new high, the rest of the indices finished with modestly red numbers. All in all, not a bad effort.

In addition to what could have been deemed a ...

Good morning. The recent correction in the stock market was sponsored largely by the worry that the Fed would begin talking “exit strategy” in the not-too distant future. As we’ve been discussing, this reated a bit of a stir in the hedge fund community and put the spotlight on the dollar carry trade. With potential talk of higher rates, some traders began unwinding some of their dollar carry trades, which meant covering dollar shorts and selling so-called “risk assets” such as stocks in the U.S. and in the emerging markets. In short, this explains the recent tick-by-tick linkage between the greenback and the stock market.

However, with the Fed's reaffirmation last week that it will keep rates low for an "extended" period of time and the pledge from G-20 finance ministers over the weekend that they would continue their stimulus programs, it was as if the central banks of the ...

Good morning. As a rule, I try not to read too terribly much into a “Fed Day” as there is usually a big batch of volatility that may or may not mean much of anything come the dawn of the next day. Maybe, it’s just me. Or maybe there are others that find themselves inclined to simply stand aside and watch the nuttiness from the sidelines on “Fed Days.” But in any event, the volatility after a Fed announcement, while fun to watch, may not be telling as to what to expect in the future.

But if volatility is the name of your game, then yesterday’s “Fed Day” was your kind of day. We got a rally of nearly 150 points out of the gate then a dive after the Fed statement, a quick bounce back up of 90 points to the high of the day, and then a plunge ...

Good morning. The recent wild ride on Wall Street continued yesterday as the Dow’s swing of 181 points intraday definitely kept everyone on their toes. And while the focus in the market had been all about the earnings reports and whether or not Corporate America could deliver some top-line growth, it now appears that the focus has shifted to the charts of the dollar and the banks.

Stocks enjoyed a nice pop out of the gate yesterday on the back of more good economic news out of China, where the PMI grew at the fastest rate in eight years. The bulls then wasted little time in celebrating some good news here at home as the reports from the ISM Manufacturing Index as well as Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending all came in well above expectations. And with the better economic news came some selling in the dollar. Thus, before ...