RBC Capital's Top Ten Internet Surprises For 2015 (GOOG) (FB) (AMZN) (NFLX)

RBC Capital analysts Mark Mahaney and Rohit Kulkarni released their Top Ten Internet Surprises for 2015. The analysts note the report loosely borrows from Byron Wien's formula and describe a "surprise" as an event which the average Internet investor thinks is highly improbable, but they believe has a reasonable chance (30%+) of occurring.

1. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) begins to return cash to shareholders - At the current rate, Google could end up having over $80B in cash & marketable securities by the end of 2015. That’s not too far off from the level ($100Bish) when Apple announced that it would begin paying a dividend. And we believe that Google management does pay particular attention to Apple’s activities. So perhaps, Google will begin to return cash. By the way, we believe that such a move would be perceived positively by the markets and plausibly lead to a sustained re-rating of Google shares.

2. Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) actually grows its expense base by close to 70% in 2015

3. Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) margins actually start to recover…and Amazon’s revenue growth actually starts to reaccelerate

4. . The OTAs (Online Travel Agencies) actually start to show leverage in their Online Advertising expenses - ... Would be a positive catalyst for both stocks. Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN) and Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE)

5. Pandora (NYSE: P) and the Music Labels directly negotiate reasonable rate terms before the end of 2015

6. No major Internet acquisitions actually occur - Yelp (NASDAQ: YELP) doesn't get acquired. HomeAway (NASDAQ: AWAY) doesn't get acquired. Pandora (NYSE: P) doesn't get acquired. Shutterfly (NASDAQ: SFLY) remains independent. And no, AOL (NYSE: AOL) doesn't get bought by Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) Despite record levels of cash among Internet companies. Despite intrinsically large equity valuations among the potential acquirers. And despite the presence of arguably a dozen large-cap global strategic buyers. So yes, it would be a surprise if no major Internet acquisition actually occurred in 2015…

7. The Zillow-Trulia Merger doesn't go through (NASDAQ: Z) (NYSE: TRLA)

8. U.S. Internet companies start to gain real traction in China... Heck, if U.S. citizens can now travel to Havana for cigars, perhaps U.S. companies like Facebook and Twitter will be allowed to freely operate in China. (We know there’s no real logic in that last sentence, but bear with us…) Or perhaps Amazon or Priceline will really establish material brands and market shares in Mainland China…

9. Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) MAU growth actually reaccelerates, the company gains material traction with advertisers, and Dick Costolo remains CEO

10. ”Marco Polo” becomes a smash hit and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) experiences a big increase in U.S. Net Sub Adds in 2015

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