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Q2 Preview: An Apple (AAPL) a Day Keeps the Losses Away!

April 20, 2011 11:33 AM EDT
Get Alerts AAPL Hot Sheet
Price: $165.00 -1.22%

Rating Summary:
    39 Buy, 25 Hold, 7 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 11 | Down: 18 | New: 17
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Apple, Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) is trading 1.7 percent higher Wednesday ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, expected out after the market closes.

Apple is expected to report EPS of $5.35 on revenue of $23.27 billion. Last quarter, the Cupertino, CA-media and manufacturing titan reported EPS of $6.43 on revs of $26.74 billion, topping the Street consensus. During the second quarter of last year, Apple posted EPS of $3.33 on sales of $13.5 billion, versus consensus EPS of $2.45 and revs of $12 billion.

Shares gained 5.8 percent over the last quarter and are down about 1.7 percent since.

Apple stock is trading at 12.8x FY12 EPS estimates, compared with 13.3x for Google, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG), 7.1x at Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and 7.1x at Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM).

Data from Bloomberg has 48 analysts with a Buy on Apple, 5 with a hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The analyst price target average is $439, with a high of $550 and low of $360. Shares have traded in a range of $364.90 - $199.25 over the last 52-weeks.

Analyst Summary
  • J.P. Morgan sees EPS of $5.21 and revs of $24.42 billion. JPM recently said the sell-off in Apple shares has been overdone, commenting "while the law of large numbers stands to diminish the relative magnitude of earnings beats exhibited in years past, we think that the overall growth trends at Apple will be too big to ignore."

    JPM is looking for Apple to ship 18.4 million iPhone units in the quarter, 3.89 million Macs, and 5.4 million iPad's. The iPad number was lowered from previous estimates of 6 million units, as the launch of iPad 2 resulted in temporary stall-out shipments.

  • Wedbush is looking for EPS of $5.05 on revs of $22.8 billion. Wedbush noted although supply chain issues could pressure margins and near-term guidance, Apple should still be able to deliver better than 25 percent EPS growth over the next few years.

    The firm expects second-quarter revs to come in above the consensus on iPad 2 demand. Wedbush sees iPad shipments of 5.9 million units for the quarter, and 30 million for the year.

  • BGC Capital sees EPS of $5.70 and revs of $24.1 billion. "Apple is the company that is best capturing revenue and profits from the mobile revolution, in our opinion. The company generated revenue of $30.1 billion in the last four quarters selling the iPhone, and over $8 billion of operating profits in our estimate. No other company in the space can approach the platform and ecosystem that Apple has built to generate such revenue and profits."

    BGC also said even with the iPad 2 taking PC market share, Apple's Mac unit was able to grab an additional 8.5 percent of the U.S. market, according to IDC data. The firm is looking for more tapered stock growth in 2011, compared with the rapid acceleration in 2010.

    BGC sees 17.1 million iPhone unit sales, 6.8 million iPad shipments, 3.9 million of Macs, and 9.5 million iPod units.
Additionally, investors may be looking for more color on potential for a full-scale Apple TV unit, considering its dominance in the small- and medium-size screen segments.

Steve Jobs' health will always be on the docket, as well as information about supply disruptions from Japan.

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results withi0 n seconds of the release.


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