Piper Jaffray Maintains an 'Overweight' Rating on Crocs (CROX); Channel Diversity Providing Topline Hedge
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Piper Jaffray maintains an 'Overweight' rating on Crocs, Inc. (Nasdaq: CROX), price target $8.50.
Piper analyst says, "Noisy but solid Q3; encouraged by topline trend: Crocs reported FQ3 revenue of $177M, inclusive of $11M of sales related to previously impaired footwear (included in guidance), exceeding our, Street, and guided ranges. Removing one-time items, non-GAAP EPS of $0.01 exceeded our 7 cent loss and the Street's 15 cent loss estimate. We expect ongoing cost savings and tightly managed capital spending to result in continued cash flow improvements into 2010. Minor estimate adjustments: We are tweaking our FQ4 revenue estimate slightly higher and maintaining our above guidance LPS of 6 cents. We currently model a loss in FQ1 2010 and a return to profitability in FQ2-Q4 next year. We assume low double digit growth in total revenues (~$60M incremental) and a mid-single digit decline in operating expense dollars, resulting in op margin in the 7% range, progressing toward a mid teens level over time. Using this level, if we believe at least 10% topline growth is sustainable, earnings power in 3 years would near $1.00/share."
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