FOMC Minutes March 18th Meeting Highlights
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FOMC Minutes March 18th Meeting Highlights
- In the forecast prepared for this meeting, the staff substantially revised down its projection for the pace of real GDP throughout 2008. Although the available data on spending and production early in the first quarter were not materially weaker than the staff's expectations, many other indicators of real activity were more negative. Payroll employment declined substantially; oil prices surged again, crimping real household incomes; and measures of consumer and business sentiment deteriorated sharply. Moreover, house prices fell by more than anticipated, and conditions in a broad range of debt markets became more restrictive. The staff projection showed a contraction of real GDP in the first half of 2008 followed by a slow rise in the second half. The recently enacted fiscal stimulus package was expected to boost real GDP in the second half of 2008, but that effect was projected to unwind in 2009. The forecast showed real GDP rising at a rate somewhat above the growth rate of its potential in 2009, in response to the impetus from cumulative monetary policy easing, continued strength in net exports, a lessening drag from high oil prices, and a relaxation of financial market strains. Even with this pickup in growth in 2009, resource utilization was anticipated to follow a lower trajectory than in the previous forecast.
- Accommodative monetary policy and a recovery in financial markets along with an abatement of the downdraft in housing activity were expected to help foster a further pickup in economic growth in 2009. However, considerable uncertainty surrounded this forecast, and some participants expressed concern that falling house prices and stresses in financial markets could lead to a more severe and protracted downturn in activity than currently anticipated.
- Recent data and anecdotal reports from business contacts suggested that consumer spending was decelerating noticeably, though it apparently had not yet actually declined substantially. Participants noted that private payroll employment had fallen in February for the third consecutive month, and suggested that increasing concerns among workers about prospects for employment and income likely were holding down consumer outlays. Rising energy prices were also damping growth in real incomes. One participant reported that lenders were restricting draws on home equity lines, and the tightening of credit availability more generally was probably starting to constrain consumer spending. Also, the continued fall in home prices and declines in equity prices were weighing on household wealth, with a depressing effect on spending.
- The recent information on inflation was seen as disappointing. With the exception of the February report on consumer prices, readings on inflation had generally been elevated. Agricultural prices were rising at a substantial clip, partly in response to strong global demand, lean supplies, and a lower foreign exchange value of the dollar. Other commodity prices also were climbing rapidly, and crude oil prices were near record levels. Several participants stated that business contacts had emphasized that their input costs were rising and that they were seeking to pass on higher costs to their customers. Some participants, however, expressed the view that emerging economic slack would limit the extent to which firms could pass on their higher costs and could serve to damp inflation more generally. Moreover, available data and anecdotal reports suggested that unit labor costs were rising only modestly, and thus were seen as unlikely to exert significant upward pressure on prices. Weaker growth, both in the United States and abroad, should also contribute to a flattening of oil and other commodity prices over time, which would also reduce price pressures and the threat of rising inflation expectations
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