Form 8-K MOSAIC CO For: Oct 30
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E-mailUNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
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FORM 8-K
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CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section�13 or 15(d)
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October�30, 2014
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THE MOSAIC COMPANY
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
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Delaware | � | 001-32327 | � | 20-1026454 |
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) | � | (Commission File Number) | � | (IRS Employer Identification No.) |
3033 Campus Drive Suite E490 Plymouth, Minnesota | � | 55441 |
(Address of principal executive offices) | � | (Zip Code) |
Registrants telephone number, including area code: (800)�918-8270
Not applicable
(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)
�Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
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� | Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) |
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� | Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) |
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� | Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) |
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� | Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) |
Item�2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
The following information is being furnished in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act ), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Securities Act ), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing:
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On October 30, 2014, The Mosaic Company hosted a conference call discussing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2014. Furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein are copies of the transcript of the conference call and slides that were shown during the webcast of the conference call.
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Reference is made to the Exhibit Index hereto with respect to the exhibits furnished herewith. The exhibits listed in the Exhibit Index hereto are being furnished in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section�18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
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� | � | THE MOSAIC COMPANY | ||||
Date: November 4, 2014 | � | � | By: | � | /s/ Mark J. Isaacson | |
� | � | Name: | � | Mark J. Isaacson | ||
� | � | Title: | � | Vice President, General Counsel | ||
� | � | � | and Corporate Secretary | |||
EXHIBIT INDEX
Exhibit�No. | �� | Description |
99.1 | �� | Transcript of conference call of The Mosaic Company held on October�30, 2014 |
99.2 | �� | Slides shown during the webcast of the conference call of The Mosaic Company held on October�30, 2014 |
The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
Company� | Ticker� | Event Type� | Date� |
PARTICIPANTS
Corporate Participants
Laura C. Gagnon Vice President Investor Relations, The Mosaic Co.
James T. Prokopanko President and Chief Executive Officer, The Mosaic Co.
Richard L. Mack Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, The Mosaic Co.
Mike Rahm Vice President-Market and Strategic Analyst, The Mosaic Co.
James ORourke Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer, The Mosaic Co.
Richard N. McLellan Senior Vice President-Commercial, The Mosaic Co.
Other Participants
Matthew James Korn Analyst, Barclays Capital, Inc.
Carl Chen Analyst, Scotia Capital Markets
Christopher S. Parkinson Analyst, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker)
Vincent Stephen Andrews Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Donald D. Carson Analyst, Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP
Jeffrey Zekauskas Analyst, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Paul A. Massoud Analyst, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.
Michael L. Piken Analyst, Cleveland Research Co. LLC
Mark Robert Gulley Analyst, BGC Financial LP
Adam Samuelson Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co.
Andrew D. Wong Analyst, RBC Capital Markets Asset Management
MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION
Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Companys Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be opened to take your questions. Your host for todays call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.
Laura C. Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations
Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2014 earnings call. Presenting today will be Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Rich Mack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have members of the senior leadership team available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks.
After my introductory comments, Jim will review Mosaics accomplishments for the quarter and our views on current and future market conditions. Rich will share his insights into our results and our future expectations. The presentation slides we are using during the call are available on our website at mosaicco.com.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
Company� | Ticker� | Event Type� | Date� |
We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on managements beliefs and expectations as of todays date, October 30, 2014, and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release issued this morning and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Now, Id like to turn it over to Jim.
James T. Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning and thanks for joining our third quarter 2014 earnings discussion. We reported solid earnings for the quarter, given the challenging business environment across agriculture. We drove progress on costs and delivered good operating performance. While we will provide some color on those results, I realize the elephant in the room is not our third quarter results. The elephant in the room is the near-term future. So well spend a significant amount of time there.
We want you to take away three important concepts from this call. First, we believe the current negative sentiment that is pervasive amongst agriculture investors is overblown, and that the weakness in ag equities provides compelling opportunity for companies and investors alike. Even the most recent USDA forecasts indicate farmer income this year will be the fourth highest in history. The uncertainty is for 2015, where today, farmers can still pre-sell their corn for around $4 per bushel and their soybeans for around $10 a bushel.
Second, this is a cyclical business, and we at Mosaic have been through many cycles. Agricultural commodity prices are indeed lower. The cycle will play out and prices will rise again.
Third and most important, Mosaic is in excellent condition to weather the current economic environment, seize opportunities as they arise, and outperform when conditions improve. We manage for the long-term, because the long-term holds great opportunities for this business.
Before I explore those topics in more depth, Ill provide a bit of an insight into our performance for the quarter. We generated net earnings of $202 million, or $0.54 per share on net sales of $2.3 billion, compared with net earnings of $124 million and net sales of $1.9 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We continued to generate strong operating cash flow of $489 million during the quarter, bringing our year-to-date cash flow to $1.9 billion, a $400 million improvement over the same period a year ago. Were putting our cash to use by continuing to invest in the business and repurchasing our shares, while still retaining $3 billion of cash and cash equivalents on hand as of the end of the quarter.
Global demand for potash and phosphates remained strong during the quarter. Our shipment volumes came in at the low end of the original guidance range, in potash, because of primarily weather-related production issues in Saskatchewan and New Mexico, which underscore the tight inventory situation we highlighted on the last call; and in phosphates because of the timing of some quarter end shipments. Phosphate prices declined somewhat even as costs rose for raw materials, especially ammonia.
As we announced last month, we will curtail phosphates production in response to these conditions and we will continue to produce with economic discipline, limiting the amount of high cost inventory we carry into the spring season. In potash, prices improved and as we discussed during our last call, Canpotex was fully subscribed. Customers in North America sought to lock in potash for fall
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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application early because of the fears of an overburdened rail system as well as low producer and channel inventories.
Indeed, potash inventories are very low. Were producing at high rates just to meet current demand. In terms of global shipments, we lowered both 2014 and 2015 global phosphate shipments forecast by roughly a million tonnes, in part due to India importing more phosphoric acid for NPK production and we are maintaining our outlook for global potash shipments.
Now, Ill turn to our views of the current agricultural markets. Farmers in North America are finishing a record harvest, spurred by mostly favorable economics, when farmers were making planting decisions and ideal weather in the growing season across the Corn Belt. This will be the second bin-busting harvest in a row. And while that bounty is good for global food security, it brings with it prospects of lower income for farmers in 2015. So, what happens from here? We know farmers are going to farm, and when they do, were confident they will follow good business economics and work to maximize yields from every planted acre.
Certainly, farmers will tighten their belts. We expect land rents to decline. We expect some land to be taken out of production and equipment purchasing decisions to be deferred. And we expect farmers to wring every penny of value out of the cash they commit to inputs. Think about it this way: if you buy a thoroughbred race horse, youre not going to try to recoup your cost by not feeding it. So we disagree with the belief among some analysts who suggest potash and phosphate use will drop in 2015. In fact, we expect global demand for potash and phosphates to remain strong, and even grow in 2015. Heres why.
First, the USDA expects the 2014 global harvest to come in a few bushels shy of 3 billion tonnes, a record on top of last years record. That much grain takes enormous amounts of nutrients from the soil and those nutrients need to be replaced. When farmers plant their fields, they will fertilize.
Second, precision agriculture technology has made tremendous progress since the last downturn in grain and oil seed prices. Today, in pursuit of maximum efficiency and sound nutrient stewardship, farmers test soil and apply precisely the nutrients the soil needs for the next growing season. This approach has the effect of smoothing demand for our products across the cycle, compared with earlier cycles.
Third, the argument that unused phosphorus will carry over in the soil from one season to the next is much too simplistic. The phosphorus cycle is complex chemistry, but suffice it to say that phosphate must be applied for each new crop. The benefit of skipping an application cycle is de minimis at todays prices, a much different story than when DAP was at $1,100 per tonne. You can read more about this topic in the most recent addition of Market Mosaic, which is available on our website.
And finally, at current prices, potash and phosphate remain affordable just as we want them to be. Our views are playing out in the market. Global demand remains strong into the fall season for both of our nutrients and prices are stable to reflect the demand. I want to be clear. We fully understand the situation facing grain farmers and we know they will have to make tough decisions as they prepare for the next planting cycle. We also know that this trough of the cycle is the first serious dip in many years. So observers who entered the business in boom times are having difficulty seeing a longer horizon. But the agricultural environment can change quickly. One poor global crop would change sentiment and global food security dramatically.
Over time, regardless of the current crop outlook, we know that demand for food and crop nutrients will rise and therein lies the opportunity I mentioned earlier. As we demonstrated with our many strategic moves, the engines of growth are cheapest to build at the low part of the cycle. Were making good progress on our strategic initiatives. Ill provide a few updates. We are on track to
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complete the acquisition of ADMs distribution business in Brazil and Paraguay by the end of the year. We are well along the process of planning for integration. Once complete, the acquisition will enable us to expand our distribution in Brazil from 4 million tonnes to 6 million tonnes, and capture a bigger percentage of the incremental value from our premium MicroEssentials� product in one of the most dynamic agricultural markets in the world.
The remaining potash expansion of our K3 shafts at Esterhazy continues on budget and on time. We closed the sale of our decommissioned Hersey, Michigan mine and have signed an agreement to sell our distribution business in Argentina. Were on pace in realizing the targeted synergies from the CF phosphates acquisition. The proximity of assets and the excellent cultural fit are proving quite valuable.
We are also making investments to create further efficiencies in our phosphates business. Were investigating further debottlenecking for ammonia production, because we like the stability of supply we generate for manufacturing a portion of the ammonia we require. Were in the process of converting two granulations facilities to produce more MicroEssentials. And were investing in sulfur melting capacity to give us greater sulfur sourcing flexibility.
At the Maaden project, were ramping up hiring and a significant portion of the capital required for the project will be put to work in 2015. We are already seeing steel and concrete rising from the ground. All these moves contribute to our well-defined strategy. They provide us with growing production capacity, increased operational efficiency and growing and stable market access. We are beginning to realize the benefits of these investments and our position for strong volume and cash flow growth as the cycle moves forward.
Finally, Ill leave the details on capital and expense to Rich, but I want to mention that our capital structure continues to improve, and we are ahead of schedule on our efforts to remove about $500 million in expenses from our two business units and our corporate functions.
Now, before I offer some closing thoughts, Rich Mack, our CFO, will discuss our results.
Richard L. Mack, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jim, and good morning to you all. This morning Ill provide a brief discussion of our business segment financial results for the third quarter, share some insight on our capital and close by providing our guidance for the fourth quarter.
In the Phosphates segment, our results were in line with guidance. Volumes, prices and margin rate were generally consistent with our expectations. We are encouraged with what we see in phosphates and view this to be an increasingly positive story for Mosaic. That said, however, and as we previewed in our press release on September 30, we believe that raw material prices, particularly ammonia, continue to be out of line with the price levels in other agricultural commodities, which is why we decided to curtail some phosphate production during the fourth quarter.
This disconnect is compounded by the fact that we are entering a seasonally slow period for phosphate sales. For clarity, were going to take a measured approach to the curtailments. We will produce enough fertilizer to meet customer needs, and we do not plan on curtailing our MicroEssentials production. We will evaluate our production levels daily with the objective of entering the spring application season with minimal high-cost ammonia and finished product inventory.
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In the Potash segment, our results were close to our expectations aside from isolated production issues, which were primarily weather related that impacted our operating rate by several percentage points. We lost some production days during the quarter at both Belle Plaine and Carlsbad because of summer storms.
While our year-over-year cash costs per tonne were roughly flat, in September, for example, the potash team delivered cash costs of $103 per tonne, including brine management costs of $19 per tonne. These costs are at their lowest level in recent years, even with lower operating rates, and demonstrate that our cost reduction initiatives are beginning to take hold.
Now, Ill move on to our capital. I provided a fairly in-depth discussion of our capital philosophy a quarter ago, so I wont repeat all that information today. Instead, I would like to make just a couple of points. First, to reinforce Jims message, the low arc in the cycle clearly provides opportunities for the strongest companies, and Mosaic has a very strong financial foundation. Weve put a lot of capital to work over the past 18 months, and we will continue to do so as compelling opportunities arise. This is how we built this business in my years at Cargill, being financially sound and looking for opportunities at the low end of the cycle.
In this regard, we have worked hard to optimize our balance sheet with the addition of $2.8 billion of attractively priced debt over the past 12 months including $800 million in the third quarter. We are using this cash to execute on strategic initiatives. CF, Maaden, the ADM distribution business and an attractive Mosaic share price. On that note, we have been repurchasing shares in the open market during our open trading windows as well as through a recently implemented 10b5-1 trading program.
Since our last earnings call, we have repurchased 3.5 million shares in the open market. That makes our total share repurchases $2.6 billion in the last 12 months or about 13 percent of our outstanding share count.
Second, as a result of the CF and ADM acquisitions, we have decided to slightly adjust our capital management philosophy by increasing our targeted liquidity buffer to $2.5 billion from $2.25 billion as a result of increased working capital requirements. This change increases our on balance sheet cash target to $1 billion. As of the end of the third quarter, we have approximately $1 billion in excess cash above this newly revised liquidity buffer after taking into account cash that will be used to fund the ADM acquisition by the end of the year and funding a trust fund for our asset retirement obligations, which is likely to happen sometime in 2015.
Now, Id like to provide our guidance for the fourth quarter, which tends to be a seasonally slow period for us. In phosphates, we expect margins to be in the mid-teens, while operating rates to be in the 70 percent to 80 percent range, which is a lower and wider range due to the curtailment we have discussed. Sales volumes are expected to range from 2.5 million tonnes to 2.8 million tonnes for the fourth quarter. This compares to 3.4 million tonnes in last years period, when volumes were unusually high as low prices and sentiment changes led to significant sales in North America.
We expect our realized prices for DAP to range from $430 per tonne to $450 per tonne. In potash, we anticipate that our mines will operate at high rates to begin to replenish extraordinarily low inventory levels to meet global demand including an expected new contract with Chinese customers. In the fourth quarter, we expect to continue to make significant deliveries under the old contract, which will increase the proportion of international standard sales in our product mix negatively impacting our expected average MOP pricing. We expect potash sales to be in the range of 2.0 million tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes during the fourth quarter compared to actual volumes of 1.9 million tonnes in the same period last year. We expect average realized potash prices to be in the range of $275 per tonne to $295 per tonne. The gross margin rate for the potash segment is expected to be in the mid 30 percent range. Our operating rate in potash is expected to be in the
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range of 85 percent to 90 percent. We are narrowing our 2014 Canadian resource taxes and royalties to be in a range of $175 million to $200 million compared to prior guidance of $170 million to $210 million, and our guidance for full-year brine management expenses is unchanged at approximately $200 million.
We are also lowering our estimated SG&A expenses to a range of $380 million to $395 million for calendar 2014 with the mid-point of the range down $25 million from the beginning of the year as a result of our progress on cost savings initiatives. Note, these numbers include $10 million in charges incurred to achieve these cost savings initiatives, so we are off to a good start on this front.
For the year, we estimate an effective tax rate, excluding discrete items, continuing in the high 20 percent range. We continue to expect a normalized tax rate in the low to mid 20 percent range for 2015 and thereafter. And finally, our expectation for capital expenditures and equity investments remains in the range of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion, including investments in the Maaden joint venture.
In closing, I have a couple of miscellaneous remarks. First, as Jim noted, we anticipate that we will close on the ADM acquisition by the end of the calendar year. Assuming that to be the case, we plan to manage and report a new international distribution segment starting in 2015. This approach will provide enhanced disclosure and transparency in our Phosphates business, as well as with our larger international distribution business. We anticipate providing you with historical data during the first quarter of 2015.
And second, from time to time in my new role, I hear questions relating to a perceived remaining overhang, resulting from the Class A shares held by Cargill family members and trusts. If such a perception exists, it should not. There are less than 35 million Class A shares outstanding, and they are held by several separate and distinct owners and trusts.
In November 2014, just next month, 17 million of these shares will convert into freely tradable common shares and a year later, all of the remaining restricted shares will also convert to common. While this diversified group of Cargill family owners and trusts will obviously have full discretion over their ultimate disposition, we would not expect significant selling given the tax implications associated with these shares.
With that, thank you for your time this morning and Im going to turn the call back over to Jim for his concluding remarks.
James T. Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Rich. The economic environment on the farm has changed. Corn selling at $3.50 per bushel reminds us after a long run of remarkable farm profitability, that food supply can still get ahead of demand, if only temporarily. And tough times for farmers lead to leaner times across the Ag sector. Were ready for this at Mosaic. Weve been through $3 corn and $9 soy beans. Weve been through $200 potash and weve seen the over exuberance of $1,000 potash. Through all of that weve stayed our course. Weve remained confident about the agricultural markets and weve made tough decisions when necessary and bold decisions when they held big promise.
Listen, this is a tough business and a tough business to predict. Agriculture is subject to a myriad of forces, economic, social, political, environmental and otherwise. Farmers and agribusiness make decisions about the future with many variables unknown. But they, and we, return to the simple concept that the world needs all the food they can grow and it needs a lot more of that food in the
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coming years. I will skip the food story details for now, and I will let this suffice. Short-term volatility is a fact of life in agriculture, but long-term demand growth is also a fact of life and lives.
Mosaic is exactly where we want it to be and weve made bold investments for growth. Weve reduced our costs. Weve built an efficient balance sheet. Weve become the worlds largest player in finished phosphates and built a strong position in potash. In short, we have built this company to succeed across the inevitable cycles of agriculture.
Now, well be happy to take your questions.
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QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION
Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Korn from Barclays. Your line is open.
:Good morning, everybody. Its quite something to get first in line here. Question for you: if we do maintain acres and we apply proportionately more fertilizers and hold total demand kind of steady, could we be headed for a wall of U.S. stocks to use in the grain side, particularly if we see grain export sales may be limited by currency? And I guess the question becomes, would it be better for the business over the next two years, three years to maybe see a substantial drop in acres this next year instead of planting 90, 91, and then anticipating an even bigger build in stocks the following year?
: Well, good morning, Matthew, and congratulations for being number one. Its a good way to start your Thursday.
Your questions really take a look at a regional market. North America, and what were competing in is a world market and Im going to turn it over to Mike in a moment about that. But I believe the world, with the demand growth were seeing in grain and oil seeds, needs to keep their foot on the accelerator to continue to grow the kind of crops were growing. We cant count on having two back-to-back, or continued back-to-back record harvests. The records just arent there to support that. Just as we dont have poor harvests year-after-year-after-year, we wont expect to have these record harvest continuing. So, I think its the right thing to do for farmers to take the market signals, produce all that makes economic sense to produce, and were seeing it play out with the soybean markets with higher than anticipated soybean exports. So, just looking at the U.S., theres other things happening, whether its Southeast Asia, Latin America, Brazil now being challenged with drier than normal planting conditions, which well see how that ends up. But weve got to look at the whole market and the whole world as a market and not just focus on whats happening with the U.S. corn and bean crops. Mike, over to you.
: Yeah, not a whole lot to add, Jim. I thought it was a good response. What we say around here is that were one great crop away from a farm crisis and one poor crop away from a food crisis. And I think that really summarizes the nature of our business, that if we knew what Mother Nature was going to deliver, I think we could answer the question. But we just dont know and I think thats what markets are precisely signaling today that theres so much uncertainty in terms of what could happen that you could get a sharp inventory drawdown next year under poor crop conditions.
: Id just add to that Matthew, until 10 days ago it was woe is me, these corn and bean prices arent going to find a bottom and we get a few little surprises like higher soybean exports, dry conditions in Latin America and the markets turn around and were seeing 10 days or 15 days of some solid improvement in both corn and bean prices. So its really a difficult one to forecast.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
:Hi. This is Carl Chen stepping in for Ben, and thank you for taking my question. Jim, can you please walk us through how you see the supply and demand dynamics evolve between 2014 and 2015 for both phosphate and potash?
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: Carl, good morning. Im going to just turn that straight over to Dr. Mike Rahm, who keenly follows those supply-demand dynamics, and Ill wrap up with some comment.
: Good morning, Carl, and thanks for the question. I think in terms of our projections for 2015, youve seen our forecast for shipments. We expect that potash shipments will increase from, I think our point estimate for 2014 is 57.8 million tonnes. We think theres another million tonne increase in 2015 to about 58.8 million tonnes or so. And in the case of phosphates, yeah, we expect to go from the mid-64 million tonne range into the kind of that 66 million tonne range. So, we expect demand growth. Maybe it slows a little bit from the rapid pace that weve seen in 2014. And given that forecast, when you weigh that up against supply, we see more or less fairly stable operating rates. In the case of potash, I think that translates into about an 82 percent operating rate or so worldwide, in the case of phosphate about 86 percent. So, as weve said, our long-term outlook shows a fairly well-balanced situation. We think global potash operating rates are going to kind of range in that 80 percent to 85 percent range and in the case of processed phosphate, rates will be in the mid 80 percent range.
: [Carl Im going to add one thing to a couple of points to that. 2015 in phosphate is going to be another record year. Although we moderated our forecast for the year to be up a million tonnes less, its still going to be up a million tonnes. And if you go back to 2007, the year before the big drop in shipments, we were shipping 50 million tonnes approximately a year. Today, were going to ship 65 million tonnes of finished phosphates. From 2008, were up almost 20 million tonnes and on global potash, again, were going to see another record. And if you go to the 2008 year, were going to be up 10 million tonnes of potash shipments.
So, yeah, there are ups and downs, dips and valleys, but the trend is unrelenting. It is upward and it maybe is not every year, but we are seeing continued growth in potash and phosphates with record years being expected in 2015.
: I think the other thing I would add, Jim, is that when you look at global grain and oilseed production, the big step-up in production pulled a lot more nutrients out of the soil as we mentioned before, and that translates into this 8 percent increase in potash shipments in 2014.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
:Thank you very much. Can you further elaborate on your strategy for ammonia procurement, specifically including some options for potentially debottlenecking of Faustina, and then also your appetite for more longer-term indexed supply agreements? Thank you.
: Good question, Chris. Im going to have our Chief Operating Officer, Joc ORourke, speak to that. Those are projects hes keenly following.
: Thank you, Chris. Joc ORourke here. Yeah, weve certainly looked at how we add flexibility and lets call it a natural hedge to our ammonia supply. We believe that by linking ourselves to the relatively high supply of natural gas in North America and low price of natural gas, we can do better in terms of ammonia procurement. And as such, we are looking at debottlenecking our Louisiana plant. We believe we can add up to as much as 100,000 tonnes of gas-based low-cost ammonia. So we think thats a really good project. Likewise, we entered into a long-term supply agreement for 700,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes from CF Industries that will be natural gas indexed or based.
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So that gives us a good balance between the ammonia market and natural gas-based ammonia. So we feel were at about the right place.
: Hey Chris, Im going to add to that, and just along that line of questioning, not only are we doing looking at the debottlenecking and pursuing that, but were also, in the same vein, going after sulfur alternatives, ensuring that we have good optionality on where we can get our sulfur. With that were making an investment in a sulfur melter in Florida, which is going to give us the flexibility to bring in prilled sulfur from other markets, 32.20 Middle East and so on, other low-cost markets and not just be reliant on molten sulfur coming in. As well, were investing in a couple of cross-Gulf barges thats going to give us the ability to move ammonia across from Louisiana into our Florida operations.
So the point is, were looking for all the flexibility we can find to ensure we have low cost raw material inputs and I think that both the ammonia debottlenecking and the sulfur melter are really going to position us for an advantaged cost position on those two important raw materials.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
:Thank you and good morning, everyone. Im wondering if you could speak a little bit about just in general or maybe post the CF acquisition. I thought it was notable that you are cutting or reducing your phosphate production in response to the higher input costs. I dont remember you being that aggressive in the past. So if you could just update us on your thought process and the strategy going forward. And is this new, is there more to come or how should we be thinking about it?
: Well, good morning, Vincent. Glad to address that. On the strategy, the CF acquisition, which we called Project Donut since it was the hole in our donut, we have mines and facilities all around the CF phosphate facilities. That was just, we were a natural parent and it worked well in terms of synergies. Were anticipating synergy harvesting of about $50 million in 2015 and were well on track to that. Its really been all we could have hoped for plus more in terms of the cost efficiencies and probably, more importantly, the quality of talent we were able to acquire with that asset. Its really gone well, the integrations gone well, and its really worked for us. Were able to get the cost synergies, were able to rebalance production amongst various plants and facilities, and its given us additional years of mining capacity and flexibility in terms of deferring a mine going forward.
We really believe in the Phosphates segment. Were always looking to grow our top line as we have with the CF acquisition and we think there is over time theres going to be more opportunities to grow the top line in the phosphates business. The Maaden project is another important element of that, where were investing 25 percent of the cost of the Maaden project for 25 percent of the off-take of the project in Saudi Arabia. Positions us well to serve the India and Southeast Asian markets.
So were continuing to be strong believers in phosphate and look to grow the top line on that. The next question you asked was about curtailment and what were thinking there. Were not straying from our strategy of producing to market demand. What weve seen is a delay in market demand for this fall season principally in North America, a delay in decisions and we could Rick McLellan could perhaps speak to that in a moment. But, weve seen the delay in decision making to apply phosphates. We think its going to come; the phosphates will be bought. But for us to build inventories with high-cost sulfur and high-cost ammonia without commitment for those tonnes, we just didnt see that as a prudent financial move. So weve throttled back our finished phosphate production so as not to build high-cost inventories. Quite as simple as that. Nothing unnatural there.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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And perhaps Ill just move it into Rick McLellan, our leader of our Commercial Operations and just to talk about what we see happening on phosphate demand.
: Yeah. Thanks, Jim. I think what we see going on in the field, theres a lot of talk about demand destruction, everything else happening in the marketplace. We got a very delayed harvest and the farmers have been slow to come in and make their minds up on what theyre going to buy. That started to occur as weve got a good chunk of the soybeans in the bin and whats happening is, farmers are slow to come in, but when they make the decision, theyre not cutting application rate. Were seeing the same thing in planning in Brazil where the planting is delayed, yet farmers arent cutting back any way on the amount of phosphates they use. So, thats what we see happening at the farm gate level.
The other piece I think Id add, Jim, to our strategy is, weve continued to focus on building out our premium products so that in phosphates, in those key and growing markets in Brazil and North America, in the Caribbean basin, weve been able to supply a bigger percentage of our business as MicroEssentials and less as DAP.
: And Vincent, this is Rich Mack. One final point that I would make. I think its fair to say that we believe that our phosphate story is getting increasingly more compelling. And we made a lot of investments- Maaden, CF, the ADM distribution business- are in line with that. We are taking a lot of costs out of the system and making good progress there. Were capturing synergies from the CF deal. And so we think telling the story and providing more transparency to our segment is important and thats one of the reasons why were going to move forward with this new segment on international distribution and that will provide much more direct line of sight into our phosphates business.
: Vincent, youre not going to get a medal for being the first one to ask a question, but you get the prize for having the longest answer to your question. Well, carry on.
Operator: [38.30 error] Your next question comes from the line of Don Carson from Susquehanna Financial. Your line is open.
:Question on potash, actually two questions. One is, just do you see demand slowing at all in North America in the fourth quarter? And I am just wondering how much of this demand were seeing is really rebuilding pipeline inventories versus pounds in the ground? And then as granular has been very tight this year, standard not so tight, as we get into next year and if Agrium can get Vanscoy up and theres 900,000 tonnes more granular out there, what impact do you see that having on the North American marketplace?
: Well, good morning, Don. Good to hear from you. Im going to turn that over to Rick McLellan, leader of our Commercial Group to answer those questions for you.
: Yeah. Good morning, Don. As far as demand slowing in North America, I think we came through spring season. And Larry and I talked about it on the last call, that we traveled and we could not find potash in the month of July in anywhere that we visited in Illinois or Indiana. And so, I think whats getting moved into place right now is going to the field or will go to the field in the next six weeks. So we dont see demand waning in North America, nor do we see that happening in South America.
And the second part of your question was the impact of Vanscoy production coming on. These are big projects. They take a long while to bring on. So I dont know whether that happens next year or
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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not. The only thing that Ill tell you is that were planning with all of our major customers and there is strong demand for granular, both in North America and around the world. And a little extra production is not going to impact very much the situation that we see, the strong position we see for granular markets.
: Anything you want to add to that Mike?
: I can give some specifics in terms of what were assuming for demand for corn acreage. We think corn acreage will be off a bit in that 88 million acre to 90 million acre range and soybeans probably in the 80 million acres to 82 million acres and all wheat in the 50 million acres to 53 million acres. We dont expect much of a decline in application rates, and as a consequence, you put all that together, we think both phosphate and potash overall use could be down 3 percent to 5 percent in North America in the 2014 - 2015 year and thats certainly baked into our global shipment forecast.
: Just to put a point on it, Don, on two of your questions, the pipeline stocks, this is the lowest weve seen in a number of years. And that is low in spite of high production rates. So, the demand has been good and its going to take us some considerable effort and good operating rates to continue to keep up with the demand and as well as fill a very, very thin pipeline. And then your question on Vanscoy, thats going to come up I think they say in 2015 and we expect that to be replacing current imports into North America. So, were yeah, theres some modest concern about where those tonnes are going, but I think that will, as I said, displace imports that were now seeing reach North America.
: Jim, I might add just in terms of the demand outlook, weve talked about of global shipment numbers. In terms of the composition of that, I think the theme for 2015 is that this torrid pace that weve seen in the Americas slows down a bit, but we expect Asia is going to pick up, particularly India. We think the pipeline there is absolutely bone dry and Rick, you just got back from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Burma. The demand prospects for P&K in those markets remain robust. So, we think Asia is going to step up and offset some of the slowdown that were projecting for the Americas.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
:Thanks very much. At the beginning of the call you were talking about your liquidity buffer. Did you say that you have $1 billion above your buffer? Youve bought back 3.5 million shares, and is it the case that you could spend, I dont know, $1 billion on share repurchase in the coming year or so?
: Good morning, Jeff Zekauskas. Im glad to have you on the call, and were going to have Rich Mack to speak to the liquidity buffer, and perhaps just give you some color on the repurchasing.
:Thanks.
: Hey, Jeff, its Rich. I think the answer to your question is, yes, youre correct, as of today anyway, as we currently have roughly $1 billion in excess cash after you take into account the upward adjustment in our liquidity buffer. And what we do with that going forward, really would go back to our capital management philosophy and I would just refer you to some of our prior commentary about our priorities for investment, which include maintaining our credit ratings and of course our dividend policy, sustaining our assets, looking at organic growth opportunities, things like MicroEssentials and cogeneration, and K3 for example.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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Strategic growth opportunities, we talked about ADM, CF and Maaden, and to the extent that we have excess cash, you should expect that we will continue to move towards the balance sheet metrics that we have publicly provided. We had a stated leverage ratio and of course our liquidity buffer. So, the way I look at it is, in 2014 we have been extraordinarily active. If you include share repurchases and you include dividends, weve returned $3 billion to shareholders, which is, I think, by far the most that you would find in our sector. And most recently after we got through the MAC Trust purchase agreement, weve been involved in open market share repurchases. And so, I think I would leave you with the fact that well be balanced and well be methodical in our approach, and we will be a strong generator of cash going forward and to the extent that we have excess cash, we will look to return that to shareholders in the form of either dividends or share repurchases.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Paul Massoud from Stifel. Your line is open.
:Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I was wondering, given low producer inventory now and the logistical constraints that weve seen in getting product distributed across the U.S., I was just wondering, as you look out over the horizon, do you think, or have you seen any evidence that retailers may start to revert back to pre-2008 practices by holding more inventory, or do you expect that the inventory rebuild, if and when it comes, is going to come at the producer level? Thanks.
: Good morning, Paul. You ask a good question. Principally around a long and complex supply chain of, its one thing making it, and its one thing delivering it to the farmer at the dealer level. Its gotten to be a whole lot more complex and uncertain about getting it between the producer and that dealer. And were spending considerable effort and time internally looking at how we can avoid the hassle we faced last year with railway shipping product railway shipping issues and what is becoming growing challenges in the barge system. So, theres a lot of uncertainty still remaining about our capacity this year to recover from the hole that was dug last year in not being able to get product to either domestic or international customers on a timely basis. Particularly when I speak international customers, Im referring to potash shipments out of Western Canada. Its a challenge we put to our dealer customers that we just cant FedEx this product a week in advance of when they need to sell it to a supplier. Weve got to take upwards of a month to six weeks to position a train, get it shipped and get it delivered.
So, youve put your finger on a real emerging and developing issue is, what position do dealers take in storing product and this year is a good example of farmers delaying decision making. So, dealers are reluctant to make the decision of loading up their warehouses if they dont know the farmers are taking. So, this is backing up the system and what were doing is where we can position product further in-country closer to those dealers with dealers and be ready for potential problems in the delivery. Im going to ask Rick McLellan to add some color to what he is seeing in the distribution system.
: Thanks, Jim. Ill just take where youre at with the farmers delaying decisions. And, the dealers have been good at stepping up and placing the inventory, but they really are looking for the farmer to do something. And so, when the farmer puts the brakes on, or delays making decisions during a harvest period like this, dealers are really reticent to take on inventory to hold it for those customers. So I think that what were going to see is if farmers can see the logistics problems arent going to go away, then you will see a change in dealer mentality. And I think thats the part that we have to look at going forward. And it involves the whole chain. The dealers not going to step in, just like we talked about not building phosphate inventories with high-priced raw materials. And so the key piece is getting a much better seamless move from production through to the farmer.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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: Rick, just to add some ideas on what weve been doing, whether its positioning barges, unit trains, ex-base contracts and how weve been trying to work around this.
: Yeah. Its a good point, Jim. What weve, in North America attempted to do is, as Jim says, weve moved it closer moved inventory closer to the customer. But what weve done is we focused on getting the inventory in place thats going to be used for the fall. And in the past, we would fill up inventory, no matter whether it was going to be used for the fall or not. And so we put hard dates on if we place inventory in your warehouses on when they should get invoiced. And so its helped us put some discipline around it and in that way we dont have the inventory misplaced somewhere in North America when it could be used to go to India. So Jim, those are the things that were doing. And on potash, were moving product up where weve got the ability to go into the dealers warehouse. But right now, were producing it and were moving it and its going to the ground.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken from Cleveland Research. Your line is open.
:Yes. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Just wanted to dig a little bit deeper into your thoughts regarding kind of the timing of maybe the next China and India contracts and what your expectations would be for Chinese potash imports in both 2014 and 2015 and then the same for India in terms of imports as opposed to just consumption. Thanks.
: Good to hear from you Michael and good question. Yes, China contract is right before us, but all I can say on it is that 1), China has been using good amounts of potash this past year, demand has been strong. And weve also seen those inventories as a result of that diminish. So we expect there to be a good appetite into China. 2). Timing wise, were hopeful that were going to see a contract, a normal type of contract over the next by the end of the calendar year; fingers crossed, discussions are underway. 3). And in terms of pricing, its going to be above where our last contract was which is a low bar, but we expect a higher price and Im not going to say much more about the negotiations at this point.
Operator: Your next question comes from line of Mark Gulley from BGC Financial. Your line is open.
:Good morning. Lot of discussion about inventory at the producer level although as an organization, as an industry youve kind of backed off on reporting that, and a lot of talk about channel inventory, but no discussion about soil inventory mostly P&K. Has the industry, or perhaps Mosaic ever attempted to take a look at what might be the available levels of P&K available for the next crop, thats already stored in the soil, lets say for example in North America?
: Insightful question, Mark, and something that we watch carefully. Im going to have Mike Rahm speak to that.
: Well, I guess the best hard evidence is what the research at IPNI has done over the years where they have done a very careful accounting of what crops have removed from the soil and what nutrients have been applied to the soil, both in the form of chemical fertilizers as well as manure and so forth. And those have shown consistently that nutrient removal has exceeded what has been applied for several years. And there are many parts of the world where and in many parts of the country, where P&K soil tests are relatively low.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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I think what we said earlier about record crops removing record amounts of nutrients is really relevant. Farmers have adopted the use of precision technology, the old view that you just kind of pour on the P&K, and build up soil levels and keep applying it at certain constant rates. I think thats changed a bit with the precision technology thats been available. So as we said earlier, this whole notion that the P&K levels in the soil are adequate to feed a 2015 crop, just doesnt seem to square with all the facts.
: Yeah. Im going to add to that, Mark that when you look at the state of technology on the farm today, there isnt a lot of room for one tank, you put in high test, the next tank, you put in low test. Were talking about just for example, seed, if you put in some of the high-value, multi-trait seeds, farmers are going to be spending $420, $410 a bag of seed. If you apply that to two-and-a-half acres, thats $150 to $160 per acre for seed. And so this is a point, I made in my opening comments, when you put on $160 of seed value, youre not, not going to feed it. Youre going to give it to the best diet you can so you get the maximum value out of it. And with these record crops that weve seen just as Mike said, weve extracted record crop nutrients.
So, yeah, there may be just a little bit of a dip and a little economizing, farmers might have to do that. But there just isnt the room to tighten the belt like there used to be. These are highly technical businesses that farmers have to maximize economic yield and thats using the best seed and the best nutrition for those excellent seeds.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
:Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. A question on the cost saving targets that youve laid out, or the $500 million by 2018. And I think in the press release you alluded to starting to realize those benefits in the quarter. Maybe quantify that, quantify maybe what youre expecting in 4Q where looking for pretty sharp improvement in potash unit costs. And then, as we think about 2015 and beyond, what the capital costs of actually achieving some of those targets might actually look like. Thanks.
: Okay. Good morning, Adam. Im going to turn that right over to Rich Mack, our CFO whos pursuing this initiative.
: Hi, Adam. What I would say is, first of all, were off to a very good start I think in terms of trying to achieve these cost saving initiatives and Ill remind you that a portion of these are real or absolute cost reductions and a portion of these are intended to offset future inflationary pressures in our businesses.
And I think what I would also say is from a management perspective, we are working very hard to front-end load as many of these costs as we possibly can. So things like shutting down our Carlsbad MOP production by the end of the year; the portfolio optimization actions that weve taken, such as the sale of Hersey; the signing of a purchase agreement to divest our Argentinean operations; shutting down our Chilean operations. Weve gone through a very significant corporate function cost review and we are implementing actions to take significant costs out of our SG&A. And so, its resulting, really across the board in head count reductions that would be included at our corporate offices and our business units, and in our international locations.
Weve set up a shared services center, as another example, down in Florida, to look at places where it is more friendly from a cost perspective to do business. And another example Id throw out is we recently shut down our Hookers Prairie mine in Florida. And so, in the end, what were trying to do is were being systematic, were looking for things like attrition, early retirements, less use of contractors, and so bottom-line, off to a very good start.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
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When we get to a few years out, in terms of capital, I think that youre going to see that there should be a step function change in terms of what our capital requirements would be. Again, its all dependent on what sort of opportunities we see in terms of organic growth and strategic growth opportunities, but we should see some of the cost savings that were achieving result in 2015, 2016 or probably thereafter and these targets, remember, are 2018 targets and less capital being used by the organization.
: Yeah, with that Adam, Ill just net were very pleased with how the organization has responded to the cost savings initiatives. Were ahead of plan, and were pushing to have most of these savings harvested before the five-year time horizon. Weve got time for one more question folks, and then well wrap it up.
Operator: Your last question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
:Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask actually about the Indian potash and phosphate market and the subsidy expectations youve built into your demand forecast for next year. Do you expect the subsidy to rise along with the prices like in particularly with the potash market? And if it doesnt, how will that impact demand and will prices have to adjust to accommodate dealer margins? Just wondering your thoughts. Thanks.
: Okay, Andrew. Good morning and welcome. Im going to turn it over after just an opening comment here to Rick and to Mike Rahm, its something were watching carefully. With the change in the leadership in India, we are seeing the were starting to see the signs of real reform and we are hopeful and pragmatically hopeful that were going to see true reform to the subsidy program. The new leadership theres some small things that have already been signaled. Weve gotten distribution rights for potash into India, something that weve been trying to achieve for a couple of years. New leadership in India and quickly we saw that request met. So thats giving us a real hope that were going to see changes to the entire agricultural system and specifically nutrient reform. Rick, do you want to add some color on that?
: Yeah. Just to add a couple things. There is I visited with some of the industry people from India in Singapore on Monday evening at a Canpotex event and they talked about finally being in a position that the government is going to focus on real change. And what that means is trying to get to the balanced crop nutrition that theyve said oft that they need to get to and people are very, very positive thats going to happen. I think probably whats more so than whats going on with prices of P&K, theyre going to have to deal with the differences between nitrogen pricing and P&K pricing. And so what that change looks like, I think, we have to be patient for it to take place. But if you use 2014 as a guide, we saw growth in both P&K imports and applications and a change to that nitrogen subsidy would only support that continuing.
: Yeah, and Rick, Id just add a couple of points. As I said earlier, were banking on India for picking up the pace in terms of their P&K imports. We think phosphate imports will be up to around 5.5 million tonnes of DAP in calendar year 2015 and MOP imports probably in that 4.5 million tonne range. The one thing I would add, farm economics in India are great. Their minimum support prices are at relatively high levels, more moderate, international prices, a more stable rupee has really caused import economics to work. So, in terms of our demand forecast, we dont see changes any changes in subsidy policy jeopardizing the demand outlook in India. The other thing I would add is that with the drop in petroleum prices, it takes a lot of pressure off the government in terms of its overall subsidy bill because petroleum takes up a pretty big chunk of that. So I think therell be a little bit less pressure to squeeze the balloon a little bit harder on the P&K side.
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The Mosaic Co. | MOS | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Oct. 30, 2014 |
Company� | Ticker� | Event Type� | Date� |
James T. Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer
Okay. With that Id like to reinforce our key messages and thank you all for your questions and the interest on this call. First, we believe the current negative sentiment in agriculture markets is overblown and the low valuations present compelling opportunities for Mosaic and investors alike.
Second, we always have to keep in mind that this is a cyclical business. Agricultural commodity prices are indeed lower. This cycle will play out and prices will certainly rise again.
Third and most important, Mosaic is in an excellent condition to thrive across the cycle. We have the resources, the assets, and talent to weather the current economic environment, seize opportunities as they arise, and outperform when conditions improve. Thank you all for joining the call. I hope you all have a great and safe day. Good day.
Operator: This concludes todays conference call. You may now disconnect.
Disclaimer
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The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call Third Quarter 2014 October 30, 2014 Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer Rich Mack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations
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Click to edit Master title style 2 Safe Harbor Statement This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Northern Promise Joint Venture, the acquisition and assumption of certain related liabilities of the Florida phosphate assets of CF Industries, Inc. ( CF ) and Mosaics ammonia supply agreements with CF; repurchases of stock; other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Companys management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to risks and uncertainties arising from the ability of the Northern Promise Joint Venture to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the future success of current plans for the Northern Promise Joint Venture and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with realization of the benefits of the transactions with CF, including the risks that the acquired assets may not be integrated successfully or that the cost or capital savings from the transactions may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected, or the price of natural gas or ammonia changes to a level at which the natural gas based pricing under one of the long term ammonia supply agreements with CF becomes disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaics decisions to exit business operations or locations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaics international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaics operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaics processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States or Canada, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from managements current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, the liabilities Mosaic assumed in the Florida phosphate assets acquisition, or the costs of the Northern Promise Joint Venture, its existing or future funding and Mosaics commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaics available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund share repurchases, financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaics Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaics operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Companys reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
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Click to edit Master title style 3 � Negative sentiment overblown � This is a cyclical business �Mosaic is well positioned to take advantage of the trough Key Messages
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Click to edit Master title style 4 Third Quarter Financial H ghlights $1,658 $593 Net Sales Phosphates Potash $239 $46 Operating Earnings " $0.54 diluted earnings per share � Includes $0.02 negative impact of notable items " $489 million in cash from operations $2.3 billion $277 million
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5 Strong Demand Persists 2 � Lowered global phosphate shipments as NPK production in India is replacing DAP � Industry on track to finish 2014 with record potash and phosphate shipments. � Lean producer and channel inventories. � Expect continued growth in 2015. 64-65 64.5-66.5 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F Global Phosphate Shipments Likely Scenario MMT Product DAP/ MAP/ MES/TSP Source: CRU/FRC and Mosaic 57-58 58-60 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F Global Potash ShipmentsMil Tonnes KCl Source: CRU and Mosaic
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Click to edit Master title style 6 Continued Confidence in 2015 P&K Demand �Expect growth in shipments in 2015: � Significant nutrient removal after two large crops in a row � Precision agriculture impact on application rates � Little financial benefit of breaking the nutrient cycle � Crop nutrient remain affordable �Watching developments Cyclicality Presents Opportunities
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Click to edit Master title style 7 Strategic Accomplishments q Expect ADM acquisition to close by end of 2014 q Potash expansions continue to be on time and on budget q Closed sale of Hersey, Michigan salt mine q Signed agreement to sell Argentina business q On pace to realize targeted synergies from CF Industries phosphate acquisition q Maaden phosphate joint venture is progressing as planned q Continuing to invest in optimizing the phosphate business: qReviewing ammonia de-bottlenecking at Faustina qExecuting well on MicroEssentials� expansion at New Wales q Investing in sulfur melting capacity
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Progress on Maaden Joint Venture 8 Ammonia - Main Control Building
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Financial Results Review
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Third Quarter Highlights: � The year-over-year increase in net sales is driven by higher sales volumes. � The year-over-year increase in gross margin dollars reflects higher sales volumes, partially offset by lower fixed costs absorption. � Operating earnings in 2013 included a $75 million loss related to the planned exit of Argentina and Chile distribution and write-off of initial ammonia plant investments. 10 Phosphates Segment Highlights $ In millions, except DAP price Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 Net sales $1,658 $1,672 $1,419 Gross margin $294 $284 $193 Percent of net sales 18% 17% 14% Operating earnings $239 $206 $58 Sales volumes 3.3 3.4 2.7 NA production volume(a) 2.5 2.5 2.1 Finished product operating rate 85% 85% 88% Avg DAP selling price $461 $465 $508 Avg Blends selling price $470 $456 $436 (a) Includes crop nutrient dry concentrates and animal feed ingredients 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q3 2013 OE Sales price Sales volumes Raw materials Other Q3 2014 OE OPERATING EARNINGS BRIDGE $ IN MILLIONS
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Third Quarter Highlights: " The increase in net sales was driven by higher sales volumes, partially offset by lower realized MOP prices. " The year-over-year decrease in operating earnings was driven by lower realized prices, lower fixed cost absorption, higher Canadian resources taxes, changes in mark-to-market of derivatives and higher depreciation, partially offset by lower plant spending and higher sales volumes. " Production efficiencies more than offset the negative impact of lower operating rate. 11 Potash Segment Highlights $ In millions, except MOP price Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 Net sales $593 $762 $523 Gross margin $131 $250 $184 Percent of net sales 22% 33% 35% Operating earnings $46 $213 $92 Sales volumes 1.8 2.5 1.4 Production volume 1.7 2.0 2.0 Production operating rate 62% 76% 73% Avg MOP selling price $291 $267 $342 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q3 2013 OE Sales price Sales volumes Resource taxes & royalties Unrealized mark-to- market Production and other Q3 2014 OE OPERATING EARNINGS BRIDGE $ IN MILLIONS
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Balance Sheet and Capital Update $47 per Share q Increased debt levels by $800 million q See repurchases at current levels as attractive opportunity: q Repurchased 3.5 million shares in the open market since last earnings call q Increased targeted liquidity buffer to $2.5 billion, including $1 billion cash on the balance sheet: q Higher working capital requirements to fund acquired business growth q $3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of Q32014: q Includes $1 billion committed to ADM fertilizer business acquisition and RCRA asset retirement obligations 12
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Click to edit Master title style 13 Financial Guidance Summary Phosphates Guidance 2014 Q4 Sales volume 2.5 2.8 million tonnes Q4 DAP selling price $430 - $450 per tonne Q4 Gross margin rate in the mid-teens Q4 Operating rate in the 70 80 percent range Potash Guidance 2014 Q4 Sales volume 2.0 2.3 million tonnes Q4 MOP selling price $275 - $295 per tonne Q4 Gross margin rate in the mid-30 percent range Q4 Operating rate in the 85 90 percent range Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties - 2014 $175 - $200 million Brine Management 2014 Approximately $200 million
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Click to edit Master title style 14 Financial Guidance Summary Corporate Guidance 2014 Total SG&A - 2014 $380 - $395 million Capital Expenditures and Equity Investments - 2014 $1.0 - $1.2 billion Effective Tax Rate - 2014 High 20 percent range
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Class A Share Overhang Out of the Way 126 Million Class A Shares (original amount) Cargill Family Members Margaret A Cargill Trusts " Own 34 million Class A shares " Half will convert to common in November 2014, the other half in November 2015 " Dispersed among several trusts; do not expect significant selling given tax implications " Mosaic finished repurchase of all of the outstanding Class A shares " Owned ~22 million freely tradable common shares as of November 2013 15
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Helping the World Grow the Food it Needs
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Q3 2014 Percent Ammonia ($/MT) Realized in COGS $508 Average Purchase Price $525 Sulfur ($/LT) Realized in COGS $148 Average Purchase Price $154 Phosphate rock (realized in COGS) ('000 MTs) U.S. mined rock 3,583 93% Purchased Miski Mayo Rock 284 7% Other Purchased Rock 4 0% Total 3,871 100% Average cost / tonne consumed rock $60 Raw Material Cost Detail 17
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$- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014F Q4 2014F Realized Costs Market Prices $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014F Q4 2014F Realized Costs Market Prices 18 Phosphate Raw Material Trends Ammonia Sulfur ($/tonne) ($/tonne) 1. Market ammonia prices are average prices based upon Tampa C&F as reported by Fertecon 2. Market sulfur prices are average prices based upon Tampa C&F as reported by Green Markets 3. Realized raw material costs include: � ~$20/tonne of transportation, transformation and storage costs for sulfur � ~$30/tonne of transportation and storage costs for ammonia 2 21
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(a) These factors do not change in isolation; actual results could vary from the above estimates (b) Assumes no change to KMAG pricing 2014 Q3 Actual Change 2014 Q3 Margin % Actual % Impact on Segment Margin Pre-Tax Impact EPS Impact Marketing MOP Price ($/tonne)(b) $291 $50 22% 14% $85 $0.16 Potash Volume (million tonnes) 1.8 0.5 22% 13% $77 $0.15 DAP Price ($/tonne) $461 $50 18% 6% $100 $0.19 Phosphate Volume (million tonnes) 3.3 0.5 18% 6% $97 $0.18 Raw Materials Sulfur ($/lt) $148 $50 18% 3% $44 $0.08 Ammonia ($/tonne) $508 $50 18% 1% $23 $0.04 Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers(a) 19
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