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Repayment of U.S. DoE Loan Puts Tesla (TSLA) in Takeover Spotlight (F) (GM)

June 25, 2013 11:39 AM EDT
Is a Tesla Motors, Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) takeover even possible?

Bloomberg speculated that that might be the case recently. With Tesla paying off its $452 U.S. Department of Energy loan, a barrier to a deal has been lifted.

Valuation on the company, which recently reported its first quarterly profit after being around for over a decade, is a little steep; shares currently go for about 816 times fiscal 2013 earnings estimates. Should Tesla be able to ramp-up production, it might grab the attention of larger players in the auto segment, like Ford (NYSE: F), Fiat's Chrysler, and General Motors (NYSE: GM), although search giant Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) might be willing to take a look as well. Both Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Germany's Daimler AG are investors in Tesla and might be interested in further investment.

One other barrier to a purchase would be CEO Elon Musk. He currently holds a 24 percent stake in the company. Though he has commented in the past that one of the best outcomes for the brand would be a sale, a long-term goal of Musk's is to create a compelling, mass-market auto, which he believes is still several years away.

Tesla is aiming for 21,000 deliveries of its new Model S sedan in 2013. The company shipped about 2,450 Roadsters in 2012, each with an MSRP of $109,000. Revs were $413 million in 2012 and analysts see that number hitting $3.2 billion in 2015.

To bolster demand for its products, Musk and Tesla are rolling out a network of fast-charging stations, starting with an LA-to-San Fransisco route and moving to the East Coast next year. Along with the Supercharger program, Musk demonstrated a battery-swapping system, which would cost drivers the equivalent of 15 gallons of gasoline and be performed in about 90 seconds.

Tesla's Model S, with a base price of $69,900, is still a little pricey for most U.S. consumers at this point. However, Musk has said in the past that the company has plans to unveil a vehicle within the $30,000 to $40,000 price range, which would significantly broaden the company's consumer base.

Google has been developing automated vehicle technology for a while now and it might find Tesla's electric vehicle technology appealing. Google last reported having $52 billion of cash and equivalents on the books, more than enough to cover Tesla's $12 billion market cap, though a substantial premium might be expected at this point.

Shares of Tesla are just about flat on the session after starting in positive territory.


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