Yuan bearish bets at near ten-month high; Fed December hike views sting Asia forex sentiments: Reuters poll
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A 100 yuan banknote (R) is placed next to a $100 banknote in this picture illustration taken in Beijing November 7, 2010. REUTERS/Petar Kujundzic
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By Jongwoo Cheon
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Bearish bets on China's yuan hit a near ten-month high in the last two weeks as the central bank guided it weaker to reflect a firm dollar, and sentiment toward most emerging Asian currencies stayed pessimistic with U.S. interest rates expected to rise.
The yuan hit six-year lows in both onshore and offshore markets
The yuan's weakness spurred concerns over capital outflows and raised speculation that Beijing may allow the currency to depreciate further to support the world's second-largest economy, although large state-run banks were suspected of intervening to slow the yuan's decline, traders said.
Chinese companies rushed to buy dollars for overseas investments and debt repayments.
The greenback <.DXY> hovered around a nine-month peak against a basket of six major currencies as a recent series of solid U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve top officials' hawkish comments reinforced expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates in December.
Bearish positions in the Singapore dollar's
The city-state's currency slumped last week to its weakest level against the dollar since March 3 on bets that the central bank may ease monetary policy amid growing risk of a recession.
The poll showed bearish bets on South Korea's won
Sentiment toward most other emerging Asian currencies remained pessimistic though bearish bets eased a bit on the U.S. dollar's recent retreat.
The Thai baht's
Bearish bets on the Philippine peso were slightly reduced due to speculation that President Rodrigo Duterte's foreign visits would generate an inflow of business, despite diplomatic strains with the United States.
The poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings
DATE CNY KRW SGD IDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
27-Oct 1.23 0.60 1.17 -0.36 0.32 -0.20 0.58 0.91 0.44
13-Oct 0.73 0.51 0.80 -0.38 0.29 -0.19 0.73 1.20 0.96
29-Sept 0.41 -0.24 0.50 -0.75 -0.11 -0.41 0.51 0.87 -0.32
15-Sept 0.70 0.00 0.19 -0.31 -0.10 -0.40 0.37 0.30 -0.04
1-Sept 0.60 -0.16 0.13 -0.11 -0.23 -0.21 0.19 -0.04 -0.27
18-Aug -0.04 -1.08 -0.47 -0.81 -0.90 -0.60 -0.33 -0.49 -0.69
4-Aug 0.12 -1.01 -0.52 -0.84 -0.67 -0.56 0.16 -0.04 -0.56
21-July 1.01 -0.50 0.06 -0.63 -0.37 0.11 0.04 0.10 -0.20
7-July 1.12 -0.11 -0.38 -0.69 0.09 0.24 0.06 0.18 -0.10
23-Jun 0.51 -0.12 -0.47 -0.44 -0.03 0.32 0.11 -0.02 -0.04
9-Jun 0.49 0.14 -0.03 -0.20 0.08 -0.05 0.30 -0.16 0.12
(Reporting by Jongwoo Cheon; Additional reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava in BENGALURU; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
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