Trump shock weighs on Asia FX sentiment; yuan bearish bets still near 10-month high: Reuters poll
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Chinese banknotes are seen at a vendor's cash box at a market in Beijing February 14, 2014. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo
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By Jongwoo Cheon
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Sentiment toward most emerging Asian currencies remained bearish in the last two weeks and is unlikely to recover soon as Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election adds to concerns about the region's exports and ties with Washington, a Reuters poll showed.
While the dollar initially weakened on signs that Trump was sweeping to power, it later rebounded on the back of higher U.S. Treasury yields, souring appetite for the regional currencies, according to the survey of 17 fund managers, analysts and currency traders conducted between Tuesday and Thursday.
Most of the participants provided their estimates after Trump started moving ahead of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in key battleground states, including Florida and Ohio.
The Chinese yuan
The yuan hit fresh six-year lows on Thursday as the central bank set its daily guidance rate
China's exports and imports in October fell more than expected, casting doubts over sustainability of a pick-up in the world's second-largest economy.
OUTFLOWS, POLITICS HIT WON
The South Korean won
Last month, the country reported 3.6 trillion won ($3.1 billion) worth of bond outflows, the largest since February, as a large chunk of the securities came to maturity, a financial regulator data showed.
Foreign investors also sold a combined net 906.6 billion won worth of equities over the previous six consecutive sessions in Seoul's main bourse <.KS11>, according to the Korea Exchange.
Park's presidency has been rocked by allegations that a friend of hers used her ties to meddle in state affairs and wield improper influence.
The Malaysian ringgit
Bearish bets on the Philippine peso
Sentiment on the Indonesian rupiah
By contrast, bullish bets on the Indian rupee
The poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings
DATE CNY KRW SGD IDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
10-Nov 1.19 0.86 1.13 0.16 0.26 -0.22 0.88 1.14 0.36
27-Oct 1.23 0.60 1.17 -0.36 0.32 -0.20 0.58 0.91 0.44
13-Oct 0.73 0.51 0.80 -0.38 0.29 -0.19 0.73 1.20 0.96
29-Sept 0.41 -0.24 0.50 -0.75 -0.11 -0.41 0.51 0.87 -0.32
15-Sept 0.70 0.00 0.19 -0.31 -0.10 -0.40 0.37 0.30 -0.04
1-Sept 0.60 -0.16 0.13 -0.11 -0.23 -0.21 0.19 -0.04 -0.27
18-Aug -0.04 -1.08 -0.47 -0.81 -0.90 -0.60 -0.33 -0.49 -0.69
4-Aug 0.12 -1.01 -0.52 -0.84 -0.67 -0.56 0.16 -0.04 -0.56
21-July 1.01 -0.50 0.06 -0.63 -0.37 0.11 0.04 0.10 -0.20
7-July 1.12 -0.11 -0.38 -0.69 0.09 0.24 0.06 0.18 -0.10
23-Jun 0.51 -0.12 -0.47 -0.44 -0.03 0.32 0.11 -0.02 -0.04
9-Jun 0.49 0.14 -0.03 -0.20 0.08 -0.05 0.30 -0.16 0.12
(Reporting by Jongwoo Cheon; Additional reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava and Khushboo Mittal in BENGALURU; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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