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Retail Sales Disappoint in October; Warm Weather Dampened Fall Shopping (XRT)

November 3, 2011 1:03 PM EDT
54 percent of retail stores missed expectations for comps for the month of October, Bloomberg data showed Thursday, marking the first monthly miss since December 2010.

Comparable retail store sales rose 3.8 on average for the month, missing analysts forecast of a 4.4 percent gain. Sources suggest the warmer weather heading into the fall season is to blame. Shoppers are also pointing at the 9 percent unemployment rate and rising costs of fuel and food.

One sector that did beat expectations was the teen sector; same-store sales were up 6.7 percent on average, versus a Retail Metrics estimate of 5.1 percent. Comps in the Apparel sector increased 1.3 percent, topping the consensus of 1.2 percent.

The Specialty sector fell inline with expectations of 1.1 percent. Some of the key drivers in this sector: Buckle (NYSE: BKE), which reported an 8.7 percent increase in comps as sales rose 12.1 percent to $79.7 million, and Limited (NYSE: LTD), which saw comps rise 6 percent on sales growth of 5.7 percent.

Shares of one of the strongest performers, Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), which posted a 21 percent increase in sales on a 7 percent rise in comps, are trading down over 22 percent on the day as management highlighted comps in Canada, Europe, and Japan continue to trend lower.

American Eagle (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), CATO Inc. (Nasdaq: CATO), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), and Ross Stores all posted preliminary third quarter results above the Street’s consensus or above previous guidance. Gap sales fell 4.2 percent and comps were down 6 percent, while Aeropostale boosted third-quarter guidance sharply from 9-15 cents to 27-28 cents. Shares of Aeropostale are trading up over 18 percent on the day; shares of Gap are only trading up 2.85 percent.

In the general merchandise sector Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT) and J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) both reported negative comps and sales. Most other companies in the sector experienced gains. One of the strongest performers was Costco (Nasdaq: COST), which reported a 11 percent increase in sales and a 9 percent increase comps.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) is down 0.6 percent at last check.


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