U.S. consumer confidence bounces back in October but remains fragile, according to RBC Index

October 8, 2009 7:30 AM EDT

NEW YORK, Oct. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Propelled by diminishing concerns about current personal finances and job security, U.S. consumer sentiment reached a twelve-month high in October, according to the most recent results of the RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) Index. Gains were made in every facet of consumer sentiment, with overall consumer confidence climbing 11.8 points. As a result, the RBC Index stands at 51.8 this month, compared to 40.0 in September. This marks a 50-point improvement over the all-time low of 1.6 observed in February 2009.

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's assertion three weeks ago that the recession is over, together with a lack of negative financial news since then, have had a galvanizing effect on consumer sentiment," said RBC Capital Markets U.S. economist Tom Porcelli. "Although the trends are moving in the right direction, consumer confidence remains fragile, and unexpected bad news about the economy or markets could once again send sentiment spiraling downward."

The RBC Index is a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices: RBC Current Conditions Index; RBC Expectations Index; RBC Investment Index; and, RBC Jobs Index. The Index is benchmarked to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January 2002. This month's findings are based on a representative nationwide sample of 1,000 U.S. adults polled from October 1-4, 2009, by survey-based research company Ipsos Public Affairs. The margin of error was +/-3.1 percent.

    Highlights of the survey results include:

    -   The RBC Investment Index increased sharply this month, climbing 21.1
        points to 58.0 - the highest mark for the Investment Index this year.
        Pessimism has declined significantly since mid-summer, with the
        number of Americans who report they feel less confident in their
        ability to make investments for the future dropping to 54 percent,
        down from 64 percent in July. Consumers who feel confident about
        investing for the future continued to improve, increasing to 33
        percent in October, from 31 percent last month. Consumer comfort
        levels for making major purchases, such as a car or new home, also
        edged up, with 22 percent of consumers reporting they are more
        confident this month, compared to 19 percent in September.

    -   Fueled by a drop in consumer pessimism, the RBC Current Conditions
        Index also reached a twelve-month high in October as it climbed to
        50.3, up 17.1 points from the September reading of 33.2. The
        percentage of consumers saying their personal financial situation is
        weak has dropped to 27 percent in October from 37 percent last month.
        Americans' assessment of current local economic conditions held
        steady this month, with 41 percent of consumers saying their local
        economy is currently weak, essentially the same rate as the 42
        percent observed in September.

    -   Consumers' near-term economic outlook brightened for the third
        consecutive month, sending the RBC Expectations Index to 54.2, up
        12.7 points from September's level of 41.5. Although consumers'
        expectations for both their local economies and their personal
        finances are essentially unchanged since last month, there is now
        much less concern with impending job losses, resulting in the overall
        Expectations Index improving. Currently, 36 percent of consumers
        believe the economy in their community will be stronger in the next
        month, while only 16 percent believe it will continue to weaken,
        roughly the same split as in September.

    -   Americans remain guarded about the job market, as evidenced by the
        slight increase in the RBC Jobs Index by 5.8 points in October to
        59.3, well below the 78.8 level observed at this time one year ago.
        The most significant influence on confidence in job security
        continues to be real experiences in job loss. This month, 67 percent
        of Americans say they or someone in their close circle has lost a job
        in the past six months, up from 63 percent in September. Despite
        ongoing job losses, relative confidence in personal job security also
        continues to show signs of improvement. Nearly one-third (31 percent)
        of American consumers say that they feel more confident in their job
        security now than they did six months ago, up from 28 percent in
        September. Correspondingly, the proportion of consumers who are less
        confident in their personal job security is down to 58 percent in
        October after reaching a high of 71 percent in March.

The RBC Index report can be viewed at: www.rbc.com/newsroom/rbc-cash-index.html.

Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries operate under the master brand name RBC. We are Canada's largest bank as measured by assets and market capitalization, one of North America's leading diversified financial services companies and among the largest banks in the world, as measured by market capitalization. We provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking and transaction processing services on a global basis. We employ approximately 80,000 full- and part-time employees who serve more than 18 million personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 53 other countries. For more information, please visit rbc.com.

SOURCE RBC

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