Research and Markets: Italy Commercial Banking Report Q4 2009 - Independent Forecasts and Competitive Intelligence on Italy's Commercial Banking Industry

November 4, 2009 6:17 AM EST

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3e4311/italy_commercial_b) has announced the addition of the "Italy Commercial Banking Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.

Italy Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's commercial banking industry.

We now rate 59 banking systems, and it is little surprise that the developed states dominate the top spots. The US and UK come first and second place, respectively, with scores of 88.7 and 88.0 out of 100. Of crucial importance to both scores are the very high rankings in the crucial 'Risks to realisation of returns - Market structure' sub-category, which account for 42% of the overall score. The two countries are ranked first and second in this category as well. This sub-category captures the size of the sector, and the potential for assets and loans to grow in US dollar terms. While both systems have been buffeted by the global credit crunch and will not post stellar growth numbers in percentage terms for the foreseeable future, the sheer size of the US and UK's financial systems means that there is massive potential for deposits, assets and client loans to rise. In addition, the generally solid institutional framework - which looks set to be augmented with new post-credit crunch regulations - will continue to provide a firm basis for the sector.

A Mixed Bag For The Developed States

Following just behind the US and UK are a clutch of major developed state economies, including France (82.9, 3rd) and Germany (80.5, 4th globally), Canada (79.9, fifth), as well as Australia and Italy (78.4, joint sixth). All of these sectors have reasonable prospects into the medium term, having a large deposit and loan base, as well as the potential to grow substantially in volume (even if not percentage) terms. However, several states are notable by their absence in this cluster. Austria falls somewhat short (72.4, 12th) of the pack, along with Greece (69.4, 16th), but it is the poor performance of Switzerland (62.7, 26th) and Japan (56.3, 34th) which really stands out. Both states are going to struggle to post increases in asset or loan growth in US dollar terms over the forecast period, to 2013, partially as a result of currency moves to the downside, but also in the case of Switzerland because of the relative weakness of the two key banking groups, UBS and Credit Suisse which had built up large franchises during the good years.

Emerging Europe, Limited Opportunities

The emerging European states are posting surprisingly mediocre ratings outturns. We highlight the potential for a systemic crisis in the region as the major Western European banks removing credit and capital from Central and Eastern Europe. These risks are exacerbated by the deep recessions we see in the Baltic states, Bulgaria, Russia and Turkey, and the risks of further currency crises that could create even greater economic dislocations, as the massive economic asymmetries that have built up in the region unwind. When taken in tandem with the relatively small size of the local economies and the rapid banking sector expansion seen in recent years, it is little surprise that the highest rated emerging European state is regional heavyweight Russia, at 73.8 (10th globally), and that the top 'new' EU member is the Czech Republic, at 64.5 (24th). Coming close to the bottom of both the regional and global peers groups are Latvia (39.0, 55th) and Ukraine (43.0, 51st), which have both been forced to tap the IMF and EU for emergency funds.

Key Topics Covered:

    --  Executive Summary
    --  SWOT Analysis
    --  Business Environment Outlook
    --  Global Commercial Banking Outlook
    --  Regional Outlooks
    --  Italy Banking Sector Outlook
    --  Economic Outlook
    --  Competitive Landscape
    --  Company Profiles
    --  Banking Sector Methodology

Companies Mentioned:

    --  UniCredit Group
    --  Hypo Group Alpe Adria
    --  Intesa Sanpaolo
    --  Monte dei Paschi di Siena
    --  Banca Nazionale del Lavoro
    --  UBI Banca
    --  Banca Popolare di Verona
    --  Banca Popolare di Milano
    --  Banco Desio
    --  Antonveneta

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3e4311/italy_commercial_b

    Source: Research and Markets

Stocks Mentioned

Related Entities

• Credit Suisse
• UBS

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