Research and Markets: Forecasts Reveal That South Africa Will Account For 14.41% of African Regional Oil Demand By 2013

November 6, 2009 10:37 AM EST

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/57df04/south_africa_oil_a) has announced the addition of the "South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.

The South Africa Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's oil and gas industry.

BMI forecasts that South Africa will account for 14.41% of African regional oil demand by 2013, with negligible domestic crude production but a growing synthetic oil capability. African regional oil use of 2.98mn b/d in 2001 rose to 3.60mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.58mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 3.96mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 10.20mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.98mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to 6.60mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.02mn b/d by 2013. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 115bcm, with demand of 181bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 211bcm in 2008 should reach 354bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 96bcm in 2008 to 173bcm by the end of the period. In 2008, South Africa's estimated share of regional gas supply was 1.89%, rising to 1.98% by 2013. The country's share of demand in 2008 was an estimated 4.08%, with 5.63% predicted by 2013.

For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The full year outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year's level.

South African real GDP is now forecast by BMI to fall by 1.9% for 2009, compared with growth of 3.1% in 2008. We are assuming 1.8% growth in 2010, 3.1% in 2011, 4.8% in 2012, followed by 3.9% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from 558,000b/d in 2008 to 570,000b/d in 2013, representing less than 1.5% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. There is very little domestic crude production, although national companies contribute some 200,000b/d of synthetic oil output. International oil companies (IOCs) are restricted largely to roles in oil refining and fuels distribution. Gas production could reach 7.0bcm by 2012/2013, up from an estimated 4.0bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 4.7bcm to 10.2bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 3.2bcm. Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in South African oil and gas liquids consumption of 10.1%, with demand rising steadily to 614,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Synthetic oil production is set to rise from 205,000b/d to 350,000b/d, with crude imports peaking at 309,000b/d in 2011. Gas consumption is expected to rise to 11.3bcm by the end of the period, requiring imports up from an estimated 0.7bcm in 2008 to 5.3bcm by 2018. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

South Africa is still ranked eighth in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. It stands eight points clear of Equatorial Guinea, so should be safe over the medium term. South Africa's score reflects the low level of state asset ownership and the advanced stage of privatisation, plus an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. The absence of hydrocarbon resources offsets these positive factors. The country is well up the league table in BMI's Downstream Business Environment rating, with several high scores. It is ranked first, ahead of Egypt, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, gas consumption growth, non-state competition, deregulation, and nominal GDP. Egypt is five points below, and represents no immediate threat to South Africa's ranking.

Key Topics Covered:

    --  Executive Summary
    --  SWOT Analysis
    --  South Africa Energy Market Overview
    --  Regional Market Overview
    --  Business Environment Ranking
    --  Business Environment
    --  Industry Forecast Scenario
    --  Macroeconomic Outlook
    --  Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013
    --  Competitive Landscape
    --  Company Monitor
    --  Glossary of Terms
    --  Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
    --  BMI Forecast Modelling

Companies Mentioned:

    --  PetroSA
    --  Engen
    --  Sasol
    --  Shell
    --  Total
    --  BP
    --  Caltex
    --  Rompco

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/57df04/south_africa_oil_a

    Source: Research and Markets

Stocks Mentioned

Related Entities

• Crude Oil
• OPEC

Add Your Comment

Name

Subject

Body

Verification can't see the text?
click here to refresh the image.
what's this?