Research and Markets: Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009 - Independent Forecasts & Competitive Intelligence on Egypt's Oil & Gas Industry

October 29, 2009 7:20 AM EDT

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/02a841/egypt_oil_and_gas) has announced the addition of the "Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.

This Egypt Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's oil and gas industry.

The latest Egypt Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 19.72% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 5.93% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.60mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.58mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 3.96mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 10.20mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.98mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to 6.60mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.02mn b/d by 2013. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 115bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 181bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 211bcm in 2008 should reach 354bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 96bcm in 2008 to 173bcm by the end of the period. Egypt in 2008 consumed 35.51% of the region's gas, with its market share set to be 27.41% by 2013. It contributed 27.90% to 2008 regional gas production and, by 2013, will account for 24.57% of supply.

For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, they expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and they are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.

In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year's level.

Egyptian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 3.7% for 2009, down from 7.2% in 2008. The publisher is assuming 2.5% growth in 2010, 3.3% in 2011 and 4.8% in 2012, followed by 5.4% in 2013. They expect oil demand to rise from 693,000b/d in 2008 to 780,000b/d in 2013, subject to national efforts to conserve oil and increase the use of gas. State oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs), and alone accounts for just 20% of the country's oil output. In spite of higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from 722,000b/d in 2008 to 710,000b/d in 2013. Gas production should reach 87bcm by 2013, up from 59bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 41bcm to 50bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 37bcm.

Key Topics Covered:

Executive Summary

    --  SWOT Analysis
    --  Egypt Energy Market Overview
    --  Business Environment Ranking
    --  Business Environment
    --  Competitive Landscape
    --  Glossary of Terms
    --  Regional Oil Supply
    --  BMI Forecast Modelling

Companies Mentioned:

    --  BP Egypt
    --  Eni Egypt
    --  Shell Egypt
    --  BG Egypt
    --  Apache Energy
    --  Dana Gas
    --  Melrose Resources
    --  Lukoil
    --  ExxonMobil
    --  Chevron
    --  GDF Suez
    --  Reliance Industries
    --  Enel
    --  Edison
    --  Dana Petroleum
    --  RWE Dea
    --  Kuwait Energy Company
    --  TransGlobe Energy
    --  Vegas Oil & Gas
    --  Circle Oil
    --  Premier Oil

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/02a841/egypt_oil_and_gas

    Source: Research and Markets

Stocks Mentioned

Related Entities

• OPEC

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