Research and Markets: Angola Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009 Reveals Angolan's Real GDP is Now Forecast to Decline by 2.3% in 2009, Following the Growth of 14.8% in 2008

October 29, 2009 7:15 AM EDT

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/050720/angola_oil_and_gas) has announced the addition of the "Angola Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.

This Angola Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Angola's oil and gas industry.

The latest Angola Oil & Gas Report from forecasts that the country will account for 3.77% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 19.20% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.60mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.58mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 3.96mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 10.20mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.98mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to 6.60mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.02mn b/d by 2013. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 115bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 181bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 211bcm in 2008 should reach 354bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 96bcm in 2008 to 173bcm by the end of the period. Angola in 2008 consumed 3.04% of the region's gas, while producing just 1.66%. By 2013, the publisher expects its share of consumption to be 4.45%, with a 4.24% contribution to regional gas production.

For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, they expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and they are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.

In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the revious year's level.

Angolan real GDP is now forecast to decline by 2.3% in 2009, following growth of 14.8% in 2008. The publisher is assuming 5.4% growth in 2010, 6.2% in 2011, 4.1% in 2012, followed by 5.3% in 2013. Healthy economic growth is exceeded by spectacular oil demand growth, albeit from a low base.

Angola still occupies fifth place in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, although it is just one point behind Nigeria, Gabon and the Republic of Congo (RoC) and therefore capable of a move higher. The country's score benefits from an excellent oil and gas output growth outlook, respectable proven reserves, a large number of non state companies active in the upstream sector and decent licensing terms. There is little immediate threat from Algeria three points below it. The country is in the middle of the league table in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely over the near term. It is now ranked fifth, ahead of Sudan and Libya in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas consumption, and private company competition in the downstream segment.

Key Topics Covered:

    --  Executive Summary
    --  Angola SWOT Analysis
    --  Angola Energy Market Overview
    --  Oil Supply And Demand
    --  Business Environment Ranking
    --  Business Environment
    --  Competitive Landscape
    --  Glossary of Terms
    --  Regional Oil Demand
    --  Methodology & Risks To Forecasts

Companies Mentioned:

    --  Sociedade Nacional de Combustiveis de Angola (Sonangol)
    --  Chevron
    --  Esso Exploration Angola
    --  BP Angola
    --  Total Exploration Angola
    --  Eni Angola Production
    --  StatoilHydro
    --  Petrobras
    --  Marathon Oil
    --  Cobalt International Energy
    --  CNOOC/Sinopec

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/050720/angola_oil_and_gas

    Source: Research and Markets

Stocks Mentioned

Related Entities

• OPEC

Add Your Comment

Name

Subject

Body

Verification can't see the text?
click here to refresh the image.
what's this?