Industrial Diversity Helps Keep Home Prices Stable; Pro Teck's Home Value Forecast Examines Lower Oil Prices Impact on Home Values

WALTHAM, Mass., March 18, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- This month, Pro Teck Valuation Services' Home Value Forecast (HVF) update examines the impact of lower oil prices on home values in oil research and production hub states, such as Texas. The authors found that in areas where the industries are diversified beyond oil and gas, home prices have remained stable. The monthly top and bottom ten ranking also are updated. San Antonio, Houston and Denver are in the top ten this month in addition to California and Washington State metros.

The HVF authors analyzed Houston's home prices versus crude oil prices over the last forty years. They found that with the exception of the 1980s, Houston's home prices have been steadily increasing and that the reason is due to the diversity of industry in the region.    

"The 1980s' decline in crude prices had a direct and significant impact on home prices in Houston. At that time, Houston's economy was overly dependent on the energy sector," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. "Diversification in the industrial-base has left Houston better equipped to meet the challenges of a prolonged downturn in oil prices."

This month's Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure percentage and REO activity.

"In addition to the Texas and Colorado markets, California and Washington state metros are again in the HVF top ten this month," added O'Grady. "The California and Washington markets all have higher sold prices over active home prices, with San Francisco leading the pack with average sold price of $989,000 over $878,000 active sales price. All of the top ten have had significant drops in active listings and MRI and look like they will be 'seller's markets' going into the spring."

February's top CBSAs include:

     Bellingham, WA

     Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA

     San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

     Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

     Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA

     San Diego-Carlsbad, CA

     San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA

     Santa Rosa, CA

     College Station-Bryan, TX

     Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

"The bottom ten are still plagued by the downward pressure of foreclosure sales," concluded O'Grady. "In addition, MRI fluctuates between 6 and 13 months for the bottom ten, which is much less than during the height of the housing crisis but far greater than the 2 – 3 that is the majority in the top ten."

The bottom CBSAs for February were:   

     Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

     Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

     Akron, OH

     Cleveland-Elyria, OH

     Jackson, MI

     Jacksonville, NC

     Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV

     Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

     Rockford, IL

     Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA

     Gary, IN

About Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast (HVF) is brought to you by Pro Teck Valuation Services.  HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources.  The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service.  To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck's full suite of residential real estate valuation products, visit www.proteckservices.com.  You can also find Pro Teck on Twitter at @ProTeckServices.

Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to [email protected].

Editor's Note:

A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic area defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting.  The term "CBSA" refers collectively to both Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and micropolitan areas.  Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined as urban clusters of more than 50,000 people.

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SOURCE Pro Teck Valuation Services