Fitch: US Bank Earnings in 1Q15 Still Pressured by Rates

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Large US bank earnings were mixed during the first quarter as the industry continued to contend with low interest rates, says Fitch Ratings. Core results for the top six US banks were mostly higher on both a linked-quarter and year-earlier basis due to the strength and contribution of capital markets revenues, while large regional banks' earnings, on average, fell from last quarter and a year ago.

Improvements in capital markets activities and the absence of material legal fees boosted earnings the five Global Trading and Universal Banks. Contributions to capital markets earnings from fixed income currency and commodities benefited from volatility in the first quarter, whereas high volatility in the prior linked quarter had hurt results.

Among regional banks, the prolonged low interest rate environment continues to weigh heavily on earnings with across the board declines in spread income. Period-end loan balances remained essentially flat. New loans are being booked at lower yields, resulting in continued margin compression. Two fewer days during the quarter also impacted results.

Among the few bright spots for banks was a resurgence in mortgage refinancing. As the 10 year rate fell during the quarter, borrowers sought to lock in lower rates, increasing mortgage origination volumes by 45% on average for the biggest banks from a year ago. Further, as concerns of impending rate hikes become more apparent, there is a possibility that more home buyers may jump off the sidelines, helping purchase mortgage results next quarter as well.

Another bright spot during the quarter was the absence of large litigation reserve builds, which have plagued the largest banks over the last few years.

Eleven of 16 large US banks reported lower expenses on a sequential basis. Some of the decrease was due to the lack of litigation-related charges, which more than offset continued spending on technology enhancements, cyber security efforts and increased regulatory and compliance spending.

Asset quality remains good. Net charge-offs (NCOs) remain very low in general for the industry, with almost all banks reporting lower NCOs in dollar terms on a linked-quarter basis. Most banks reported higher provision expenses during the quarter, with less than $900 million in reserve releases for the 12 banks included in this report with sizable loan books, well below the roughly $2.5 billion in reserve releases a year ago.

Capital ratios remain solid, increasing around 10bps in the first quarter, reflective of retained earnings, offset by share repurchase activity and modest balance sheet growth.

Looking ahead on rates, it is unclear whether economic data will support interest rate hikes beginning in June or not. Absent any movement in short rates, we believe banks' spread earnings will remain under pressure, assuming continued modest growth in balance sheets.

A complete report on the first-quarter 2015 earnings of the largest U.S. banks may be found in: "U.S. Banking Quarterly Comment: 1Q15" at fitchratings.com.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.

The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. The original article, which may include hyperlinks to companies and current ratings, can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research: U.S. Banking Quarterly Comment: 1Q15 (Low Rate Environment Takes its Toll on Regionals)

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=865281

U.S. Banking Quarterly Comment: 4Q14 (All Eyes on Oil Prices and Interest Rates)

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=849388

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Source: Fitch Ratings

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