Brean Murray Starts Poniard Pharmaceuticals (PARD) with a Buy
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Brean Murray initiates coverage on Poniard Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: PARD) with a Buy rating and $11 price target.
The price target is derived by applying a 30 multiple and 35% discount rate to our 2013 EPS projection of $1.03, which assumes a 2H10 launch of picoplatin in second-line SCLC and a 3Q11 launch of picoplatin in first-line metastatic CRC. Brean Murray believes that these two markets add up to $5 billion worldwide, of which they assume almost $1.2 billion in sales in 2013.
The firm said, "We believe that the Phase 2 data to date in multiple indications, combined with our expectations for positive Phase 3 SCLC trial results in 2H09, will drive a partnership yielding global double-digit royalties, as well as a commitment from the partner to fully fund development of picoplatin in metastatic CRC, and potentially in CRPC and ovarian cancer. We expect a late 2009 NDA submission followed by a mid-2010 approval in the U.S. Picoplatin has the potential to become the preferred treatment for second-line SCLC, given topotecan's limited efficacy in platinum-resistant and highly refractory patients and no other approved competition in the setting"
The price target is derived by applying a 30 multiple and 35% discount rate to our 2013 EPS projection of $1.03, which assumes a 2H10 launch of picoplatin in second-line SCLC and a 3Q11 launch of picoplatin in first-line metastatic CRC. Brean Murray believes that these two markets add up to $5 billion worldwide, of which they assume almost $1.2 billion in sales in 2013.
The firm said, "We believe that the Phase 2 data to date in multiple indications, combined with our expectations for positive Phase 3 SCLC trial results in 2H09, will drive a partnership yielding global double-digit royalties, as well as a commitment from the partner to fully fund development of picoplatin in metastatic CRC, and potentially in CRPC and ovarian cancer. We expect a late 2009 NDA submission followed by a mid-2010 approval in the U.S. Picoplatin has the potential to become the preferred treatment for second-line SCLC, given topotecan's limited efficacy in platinum-resistant and highly refractory patients and no other approved competition in the setting"
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