Nomura Securities on the Global Economy and Geopolitics: Numberous Indications
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Nomura Securities on the Global Economy:
Analyst, Richard Koo, said, "The past two weeks have brought numerous indications that the world economy is decelerating. In the US, the latest data confirmed continued weakness in consumption and the labor market, and in Europe the ECB lowered its policy rate 25bp to a euro-era low of 0.75%. Among the emerging economies, China, Korea, and Brazil belied earlier perceptions of strength by announcing rate cuts. That would ordinarily give a boost to stocks, but this time equities were sold off as the rate cuts were interpreted as evidence of economic weakness. Chinese GDP growth fell below 8% in Q2 for the first time in several years, and there are growing concerns about balance sheet recession in Korea where house prices are said to be falling in some areas.
Nomura on Geopolitics:
Analyst, Alastair Newton, said, "Geopolitcs and oil: Implications for a possible strike against Iran. We believe that the withdrawal of Kadima from Israel’s ruling coalition may, if anything, diminish the likelihood of an early Israeli strike against Iran. However, other factors which could affect the likelihood one way or the other still deserve careful monitoring, notably the P5+1 process and US election prospects."
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Analyst, Richard Koo, said, "The past two weeks have brought numerous indications that the world economy is decelerating. In the US, the latest data confirmed continued weakness in consumption and the labor market, and in Europe the ECB lowered its policy rate 25bp to a euro-era low of 0.75%. Among the emerging economies, China, Korea, and Brazil belied earlier perceptions of strength by announcing rate cuts. That would ordinarily give a boost to stocks, but this time equities were sold off as the rate cuts were interpreted as evidence of economic weakness. Chinese GDP growth fell below 8% in Q2 for the first time in several years, and there are growing concerns about balance sheet recession in Korea where house prices are said to be falling in some areas.
Nomura on Geopolitics:
Analyst, Alastair Newton, said, "Geopolitcs and oil: Implications for a possible strike against Iran. We believe that the withdrawal of Kadima from Israel’s ruling coalition may, if anything, diminish the likelihood of an early Israeli strike against Iran. However, other factors which could affect the likelihood one way or the other still deserve careful monitoring, notably the P5+1 process and US election prospects."
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