Panera Bread (PNRA) Tops Q4 EPS by 10c

Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) reported Q4 EPS of $1.88, $0.10 better than the analyst estimate of $1.78. Revenue for the quarter came in at $691.8 million versus the consensus estimate of $695.43 million.

- Q4 2015 Company-owned comparable net bakery-cafe sales up 3.6%

- Q1 2016 (first 41 days) Company-owned comparable net bakery-cafe sales up 6.4%

- Q4 2015 EPS growth of 1%, excluding one-time items

- FY 2016 EPS growth target set at up 2% to 5%, excluding one-time items

- 119 Company bakery-cafes converted to Panera 2.0 during Q4 2015, bringing total to 410

Ron Shaich, Chairman and CEO, commented, "Our strategic plan is working. Our comps of 3.6% in Q4 2015 and 6.4% in the first 41 days of Q1 2016 are leading indicators of the impact our initiatives are having. Further, we are confident that our results will continue to strengthen as the startup and transition costs associated with our initiatives begin to crest and our sales continue to grow. We now expect the EPS growth we saw in Q4 2015 will improve in 2016 and further accelerate in 2017. Today, we are confident we are on a path to return to sustained double-digit earnings growth."

Initial Full Year Fiscal 2016 Outlook

Diluted EPS

The Company is targeting full year fiscal 2016 diluted earnings per share growth of 2% to 5% when compared to full year fiscal 2015 (comparative diluted earnings per share for full year fiscal 2015 excludes certain items as outlined on Schedule V).

The full year fiscal 2016 diluted earnings per share target range is based on the following key assumptions:

Comparable Net Bakery-Cafe Sales Growth

The Company is targeting Company-owned comparable net bakery-cafe sales growth for fiscal 2016 of 3.5% to 4.5%. The Company announced today that Company-owned comparable net bakery-cafe sales in the first 41 days of fiscal Q1 2016 were up 6.4%. Comparable net bakery-cafe sales in the first 41 days benefited from the fact that the Company took an earlier price increase in fiscal Q1 2016 than in fiscal Q1 2015 to better align with structural wage increases.

Operating Margin

The Company's fiscal 2016 diluted earnings per share target range assumes operating margin will be down 50 to 100 basis points when compared to fiscal 2015 which reflects startup and transition costs associated with our initiatives, excluding the impact of one-time charges.

New Bakery-Cafe Development and AWS

The Company's fiscal 2016 new bakery-cafe target is 90 to 100 system-wide bakery-cafe openings and the average weekly net sales performance target for new Company-owned bakery-cafes is $45,000 to $47,000.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Panera Bread (PNRA) click here.

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