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Q1 Preview: Jabil Circuit (JBL) Expected To Navigate Ebb and Flow from Clients

December 20, 2011 1:40 PM EST
Get Alerts JBL Hot Sheet
Price: $129.59 -0.05%

Rating Summary:
    12 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: Down Down

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 17 | Down: 14 | New: 17
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Shares of Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) are trading up 5.6 percent on the day as the company is expected to announce its first-quarter fiscal 2012 results Tuesday, December 20th (Today), following of the closing bell. The company has a conference call scheduled at 4:30pm ET. Dial-in: (800) 837-7537 or International (706) 634-1268 with Conference ID# 34177568.

The Street sees Jabil Circuit reporting quarterly earnings of $0.65 per share on $4.41 billion in sales. The company originally offered guidance which called for $0.62-$0.67 per share in earnings on $4.3-$4.5 billion in revenues. During the first-quarter of fiscal 2011, Jabil Circuit reported earnings of $0.61 per share on $4.08 billion in total sales. For the full year 2011, the analyst consensus is at $2.60 per share in earnings on $17.69 billion in total sales.

10 analyst firms rate Jabil Circuit shares at Buy, three rate the stock a Hold, while no one says to sell the stock. The average price target on shares of JBL is $23 with a range from $19 to $27.

Back on December 14th, JPMorgan raised its price target on shares of Jabil Circuit from $22 to $25 and reaffirmed its Overweight rating. The firm is bullish on the quarter as it estimates earnings of $0.67 per share. The upside will be driven by 18 percent revenue growth in its Specialized Services business. Due to a reduction in OEM inventories, the firm has lowered its estimates for both Enterprise & Infrastructure and High Velocity Systems.

An analyst at JPMorgan comments, "Overall EPS forecasts rise slightly as the favorable mix of high margin Specialized Service revenue more than offsets lower HVS and E&I. Despite the gloomy economic backdrop, our analysis of customers' trends suggests our Jabil forecasts are adequately conservative. Hence, we anticipate Tuesday’s results could provide an affirmation of current earnings power."

Although Goldman Sachs has a Buy rating and $23 price target on the stock, the firm's estimates for the first quarter are slightly bearish. Goldman is currently forecasting earnings of $0.61 per share on $4.27 billion in revenues for the quarter. The firm noted it is predicting growth for the quarter to be driven by strength in the company’s specialized services business, in particular smartphone hardware casings.

Looking ahead, Goldman anticipates management will offer its second quarter guidance in-line with what the Street is currently expecting. The firm highlights weakness at RIM (Nasdaq: RIMM) should be offset by growing momentum at Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO).

Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe shares of JBL are fairly priced compared to its peers, hence the Hold rating and $19 price target. For the quarter, the firm is extremely bearish with its earnings estimate of $0.54 per share. Deutsche believes DMS is the company's main growth driver and is forecasting 26 percent growth year over year for the first quarter.

For the second quarter, the firm is anticipating management will offer guidance relatively inline with the Street's forecast of $0.60 per share on $4.24 billion in sales. Deutsche also suspects guidance could be weak given, "the softer economic environment since Jabil last reported and lackluster outlooks from top customers HP (NYSE: HPQ) and RIMM."

Deutsche states analysts will focus on customer demand trends and FY-12 visibility; the company's ability to meet targeted long-term segment growth rates in FY-12; inventory corrections at customers, particularly in Enterprise & Infrastructure; operating margin leverage and additional buybacks; M&A opportunities; and other uses of cash during the conference.


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