Preliminary NPD Data Suggests Upside to Apple (AAPL) Earnings -Piper Jaffray

August 25, 2008 2:58 PM EDT

Piper Jaffray is out with a research note considering preliminary NPD data for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) units of Macs and iPods. The firm maintains a Buy rating and $250 price target on Apple.

The data is for the first month of Apple's September quarter and suggests better-than-expected sales of both Macs and iPods. For Macs, Piper believes the NPD data indicates 2.7-2.9 million units sold, which is better than the Street's 2.65 million units, implying year-over-year Mac growth of 25-29% growth, compared to the Street's expected growth of 23%. For iPod's, the firm believes NPD data suggests units of 10.7-11.2 million, compared to the Street estimate of 10.8 million. Such a range implies year-over-year growth of 5-10%, versus the Street's estimate of 6%.

Piper believes that if Apple reaches the unit sales estimates mentioned above (as well as 4.1 million iPhones), at a gross margin of 32%, the company could see EPS of $1.19 on sales of $8.5 billion for its Q1. These numbers compare to the Street's estimates of $1.11 and $8.08 billion and Apple's previously issued guidance of $1.00 on sales of $7.8 billion.

Apple, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells personal computers, portable digital music players, and mobile communication devices, as well as related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions worldwide.

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