Insiders' Blog

The U.S. stock market will experience a very important test today. Will it pass?

Everyone knows the market has rallied significantly so far this year, with the S&P 500 up over 6 percent since the start of the year. U.S. investors have been asking themselves if this rally has been based on the situation in Europe improving or the realization that the U.S. economy is improving? We've clearly witness both.

Stocks are down this morning on the back of the still-unclear situation in Greece, which can't get its own act together let alone get the rest of the Eurozone to agree. With the action today, investors may be able to get some important insight into how the market is thinking.

If we rally into the close on our own it could suggest that the U.S. market has de-coupled from Europe, which would be huge. This would be confirmation that we are in a “buy the dip” market - ALL ABOARD

If we continue to trade off headlines in Europe it could indicate that we have a rough road ahead. After improving significantly, headlines from Europe will likely only get worse for the next little while. CAUTION FLAG

So there you have it - Are we a US-driven U.S. stock market? - or - a Eurozone-driven U.S. stock market? Today may give us an answer.

Amid continued signs of a weak global economy throughout 2012, the International Energy Agency Friday lowered its global demand forecast for the sixth consecutive month.

The IEA now sees demand around 800,000 barrels per day, down from a prior estimate of 1.05 million barrels per day. The move follows a cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday to lower its global estimate by 120,000 barrels to 940,000. In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lifted its global demand growth estimate on Tuesday by another 50,000 barrels per day to 1.32 million.

The mild winter conditions in North American have helped lead to drastic declines in demand, while poor economic conditions in Europe has families lowering the temperature on their thermostats. "Much of Europe already saw declines in economic activity in 4Q11, and with further drops assumed for the 1Q12, this equates to the technical definition of recession," the IEA said.

The IEA forecasts oil demand in 2012 will decline by 0.8 percent in most industrial nations; reductions in gasoline demand may make up roughly 40 percent of that decline.

International sanctions put on Iran should not hamper demand, according to the IEA. The agency highlighted rising production levels in North and Latin America, along with a reduction in demand which will likely offset supply.

The global oil supply rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 90.2 million in January as OPEC’s supply rose over its average 30 million barrels per day by an additional 900,000 barrels.

The price of crude has been on a roller coaster as talks of demand and growth fluctuate. Crude is trading down roughly 2 percent to $97.80 a barrel at last check.

Kimco Realty (NYSE: KIM) may have become the best pure-play stock on retail real estate...and that has piqued the interest of one Jim Cramer.

Recently, Cramer spoke with Kimco CEO David Henry. Kimco currently has operates roughly 800 centers across the country with a 93.5 percent occupancy rate. After the market closed Wednesday, Kimco reported fourth-quarter FFO of 33 cents, beating views by 3 cents. The REIT also issued some strong fiscal 2012 guidance calling for FFO of $1.22 to $1.26, beating views of $1.19.

Henry said Kimco has just 4.5 percent of its total portfolio as non-retail properties. Further, Henry said Kimco's focus and holdings centered around staples like groceries, drugs, services, and discounted items, making them less vulnerable to erratic market shifts compared to Internet competition.

Bankruptcies, like that of Borders Group, give Kimco a fresh set of opportunity as well, with older tenants having lower rents in most cases. On Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Kmart, Henry said that if those locations close then Kimco could benefit because Sears and Kmart also pay rent below market value. He said the REIT would have no problem filling those locations.

Finally, the CEO is bullish on both Canada and Mexico. For Canada, Henry says there's about half as many retailers as in the U.S. and the economy is a strong one, providing a great opportunity for Kimco.

Overall, previously a bear on the stock Cramer now sees Kimco as a solid play on retail growth. What's more, Kimco pays out 19 cents in a quarterly dividend, with a current annual yield of about 4 percent.

Shares are 1.2 percent lower Friday.

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has come out victorious in another patent litigation case.

According to reports Friday, Apple won a case against Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) in Germany over patents involving mathematical sequences in mobile telecommunications.

Motorola didn't show solid proof that Apple was violating the patent, said Adnreas Voss of the Regional Court in Mannheim.

This puts Motorola's overall record at 2-1, having won twice before in the same court. There are still several outlying cases between the two in Germany, including one where Motorola plans to enforce a win from last December.

Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) is ticking lower Friday amid reports that a rivalry atop the company might go on for another two weeks.

According to Reuters, Japanese businessman Kazuo Okada is inching closer to gaining access to the books of Wynn Resorts. Recently, Okada sued Steve Wynn over being denied access to the information and called a recent $135 million corporate donation to a university in Macau 'inappropriate."

Okada holds a 20 percent stake in Wynn, double what Steve Wynn is holding.

Wynn and Okada have been business partners for 12 years now, but this recent escapade has caused a rift between the two billionaires.

On Thursday, a judge in Nevada ruled that he will need an additional two weeks to review claims and give the two more time to resolve some issues.

Chairman of arcade-game manufacturer Universal Entertainment Corp. -- who is 11 percent owned by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) -- Okada has also sought to nominate four members to Wynn Resorts' Board of Directors, potentially giving him control of five out of 12 seats.

Universal is looking to develop a $2 billion casino in the Philippines, which Wynn claims is the heart of all the problems, though people for Okada said the Philippines project wasn't a factor.

It's not clear why Okada wants to take a peek into the books, whether it be to see a more itemized view of spending or to get a clearer picture of Wynn's overall operations (10-Qs and 10-Ks are very general), but the outcome may have a negative effect on Wynn's shares as investors may lose confidence in the casino giant.

Shares of Wynn Resorts are about 1 percent lower Friday morning. Shares are well off their 52-week high just above $170, and are trading 6 percent lower following its fourth-quarter numbers issued February 2nd.