China Might See New BlackBerry (BBRY) Devices in Back-Half of 2013

February 19, 2013 11:32 AM EST
Amid BlackBerry (Nasdaq: BBRY) looking to pull out of sluggish markets like Japan and South Korea, the company might be looking at China as its next key growth market.

China's Global Times reports that BlackBerry might release BlackBerry 10 (BB10) devices into China during the later part of 2013. Specifics of launch dates and devices weren't disclosed.

One of the bigger concerns behind the BlackBerry name is ecosystem. Despite a number of improvements made with BB10, both Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) have made large strides over the last few years in terms of building out a solid ecosystem for iOS and Android, respectively.

Still, given China's vast user base, BlackBerry might be able to procure decent sales numbers with a solid campaign. Shares are up 2.6 percent Tuesday.

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Strong Sales at BBRY
Tom Pull on 2013-02-20 23:17:17
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This is the way that I see it: (time to do the math – follow along)

63 M Population of UK
35 M Population of Canada
8 M Population of UAE

106 M Population of where Z10 was launched (1 phone only)

World population = 6.98B = 1.5% of the world population where the z10 was available.

Estimate of Z10 sold in the month of February: 300,000
Time frame: Under 4 weeks

If the Z10 was launched world wide, based on the same ratio, there would have been 20 Millions Z10 sold in 1 month. = 60 Million Z10 in a quarter.

Therefore the analyst that called BBRY to sell 1.75M in under 4 weeks is really saying: BBRY should have sold 116M phones if it launched worldwide in February.

It does not make sense.


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