Barron’s Sees Shares of Ulta Salon (ULTA) Near Peak Levels

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ULTA Hot Sheet

Overall Analyst Rating:
NEUTRAL (= Flat)

Dividend Yield: 1.1%
Revenue Growth %: +23.0%

With shares of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (Nasdaq: ULTA) up roughly 95 percent this year alone, and up substantially from a low of $4.11 during the first quarter of 2009, Barron’s is beginning to anticipate a large sell-off.

The publication's belief is based on several factors, including the fact that shares are currently trading at 37x the company's fiscal 2012 earnings forecast and 30x its 2013 forecast, each store is presently valued at about $10 million, and the rising competition in the industry. Barron’s believes shares should trade near a 20x multiple, or around $55 per share, calling for a 17 percent drop in the stock’s price.

Ulta Salon’s growth expectations over the next couple years are extremely high and may cause some analysts to begin to panic if results end up being disappointing. It appears investors have already priced in the company’s growth potential and now it’s time to see if management can produce the results. Barron’s forecasts Ulta Salon shares may see a similar trend shares of Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX) and lululemon athletica (Nasdaq: LULU) have experienced.

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