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Apple (AAPL) Investors Cautious as Key Rival Sees Softer Smartphone Sales

January 24, 2014 11:53 AM EST
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is seeing a little downside pressure today following an outlook update by one of its strongest peers.

South Korea's Samsung reported flat Q4 earnings in its mobile division, citing a strong Korean won and expectations of further tapering of the Fed's quantitative easing measures as two key reasons. The company also said smartphone sales dipped slightly, noteworthy given that the fourth-quarter is generally a strong sales season for OEMs and retailers alike. Analyst estimates have Samsung shipping about 85 to 87 million smartphones during the quarter, though the company didn't issue specific numbers.

Looking ahead, Samsung sees Q1 smartphone, tablet, and other consumer goods demand down on seasonal weakness. Additionally, no successor to the Galaxy S4 is planned for release over the next few months.

Apple is expected to report Q1 results on Monday night. Investors might be positive on Samsung's commentary given that the introduction of the iPhone 5s and 5c last September might have converted a few more potential Samsung shoppers. Analyst estimates for iPhone shipments in CQ413 are around 55 million.

Cowen's Timothy Arcuri commented this morning, Samsung's smartphone market share declined ~400 basis points Q/Q to ~33 percent (our estimate). Given both Nokia and Samsung have now reported declines in CQ4:13, an [Apple] iPhone number in-line or maybe a little better than our 55 million estimate should strongly highlight its share gains.

Still, Samsung is one benchmark investors need to keep in mind as we continue through Q1. The company, like Apple, is likely to make a stronger push into China in the low-end market and has already become a favorite with 4G subs due to its smartphone offerings having larger displays versus Apple's iPhone...a key sticking point that may be addressed with the iPhone 6.

Shares of Apple are down about 1 percent Friday.


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