Send to a Friend Share

Airline Profitability Ratcheted Up Over 3 Fold in 2010, But 2011 Could Be Bleak (UAUA, LCC, AMR, More...)

September 21, 2010 12:14 PM EDT
UAUA Hot Sheet
Overall Analyst Rating:
    BUY (= Flat)
In what some may see as a signal to a recovering economy, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised their FY10 profitability outlook for FY10. In June, the IATA saw airlines earning a profit of $2.5 billion for the year. However, that number has been revised up 356% to $8.9 billion.

Looking to FY11, the Association sees profits of just $5.3 billion.

CEO Giovanni Bisignani notes that the prediction for $8.9 billion in profits will "start to recoup the nearly $50 billion lost over the previous decade." He notes that, at the thin margins that the industry operates at, a 3.5x increase in profits translates to only a 1.6% gain in margins.

Factors influencing the increased outlook include:
  • Improved demand and capacity, with traffic increased 3% - 4% over 2008 pre-crisis levels;

  • Yields are improving as capacities that were cut last year are slower to recover than demand improvements. Load factors are increasing, providing some pricing power to airlines;

  • Revs are expected to grow to $560 billion, about $15 billion than the June forecast. By comparison, revs in 2008 were $564 billion; and

  • This revised outlook has oil at $79 per barrel, but the overall bill is clocked at $137 billion, or $3 billion lower than the June forecast.
Looking to FY11, however, CEO Giovanni Bisignani is a little more austere, stating that 2010 is going to be “as good as it gets. Governments are running low on cash for pump priming...unemployment remains high and business confidence is weakening." Again, profitability is expected to be $5.3 billion, with a margin of 0.9%.

Airlines to watch include: UAL Corporation (Nasdaq: UAUA), US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC), AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), JetBlue Airways Corp. (Nasdaq: JBLU0, and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) among others.


Get immediate access to market moving news and alerts with StreetInsider.com Premium - FREE TRIAL!

You May Also Be Interested In


Related Categories

Insiders' Blog

Add Your Comment





Follow StreetInsider.com On Twitter