Red-Hot IPO ExOne (XONE) Continues Higher, But Multiple Should Give Pause

February 8, 2013 12:38 PM EST
Yesterday's red hot IPO for 3D printing company The ExOne Company (NASDAQ: XONE) continues to surge. After rising 47 percent Thursday from its IPO pricing of $18, the stock is up another 16.5 percent Friday to $30.90. It is already the top performing IPO of 2013, with a total gain of 72 percent.

Is there more upside? Let's look at some numbers:

There is expected to be 13,281,605 total shares outstanding if the IPO underwriters exercise the over-allotment option in full. This would give the company a market cap of $408 million based on current trading levels.

ExOne's revenues for the the first nine months of 2012 were $15.9 million, as compared to $12.6 million for the same period in 2011, representing growth of 26.6%. EBITDA was ($8.9) million for the first nine months of 2012, as compared to ($2.3) million for the same period in 2011. During the three month period ended December 31, 2012, the company shipped eight machine units to end customers globally. The company had no machine unit shipments to end customers during the three months ended December 31, 2011.

Rival 3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) has a market cap of $3.8 billion and Stratasys Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS) has a market cap of $1.8 billion. Meanwhile, both are profitable and have considerably higher sales. 3D Systems trades at about 9x next year's sales, while Stratasys trades at about 4x next year's sales.

Meanwhile, based on ExOne's current sales growth rate of around 30 percent the company could see revenue of $25 million next year, which would suggest shares are trading at 16x next year's sales, substantially higher than 3D Systems and Stratasys which are both growing sales at the same or better pace.

So, while ExOne could continue higher given the enthusiasm surrounding the 3D printing space, shares look a little overdone near-term until the company can prove it can grow at a faster pace and make strides toward profitability.

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Sales projections
Paul on 2013-02-11 10:30:51
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Now that ExOne is public, I am sure the increase in sales will not be linear, but exponential. The advertising boon with IPO status will ensure expansion of its already impressive clientele, and its products will reach into every corner... has anyone realized who will likely want 50 machines pronto? The US military of course...

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