Barron's Says First Solar (FSLR) Is A Sell
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This weekend Barron's wrote a column that said this will be a tough week for the recently hot First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR). First Solar is down approximately 6% to $179 in today's trading.
The Intersolar trade show in Munich begins tomorrow and this is where the world's solar businesses issue their new contracts. Barron's noted that the deals will surely adjust for the plunging price of refined silicon, which is 50% of the cost of goods at First Solar's competitors.
Barron's reported that one of First Solar's leading customer will stop using FSLR's "thin-film" panels if crystalline silicon alternatives keep dropping in price. That scenario does seem likely. Silicon prices are expected to drop another 30% by year end, and therefore, First Solar profits and its shares could fall as much as 50%.
Barron's does not believe investors are paying attention to that gloomy scenario for First Solar as FSLR has nearly doubled over the last few months to as it crossed the $200 level last week.
As evidenced of prices dropping at its competitors, Yingli Green Energy's (NYSE: YGE) said on its earnings call, it will further cut prices by 15%, thanks to the expanding supply of refined silicon. Last week, Solarfun (Nasdaq: SOLF) said silicon prices are $70 a kilo, on their way to $50, which would cut another €0.20 per watt from the panels.
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