Top BlackRock strategist sees further sterling fall

By Trevor Hunnicutt

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The British pound could weaken further in the next six months even if it enjoys a temporary rebound, a top BlackRock Inc investment strategist said on Friday after Britain voted to exit the European Union.

"Sterling will weaken from here over the next six months, but in the next seven days it might have a rebound," said the strategist, Ewen Cameron Watt, as sterling made a record plunge.

Sterling sank a staggering 10 percent at one point during trading and was last down 7.4 percent at $1.38.

Cameron Watt told Reuters many investors who buy the currency now are likely speculating on being able to sell it later, which could create more selling pressure later this year.

Cameron Watt is a London-based managing director and senior director of BlackRock's Investment Institute. New York-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $4.7 trillion under management, as of March 31.

But the strategist cautioned that investors may be indiscriminately selling even assets that are not related to the "Brexit" referendum.

"A lot of things that are falling in price have got no real direct economic or real specific risk correlated with the referendum today or necessarily with Europe," he said.

Cameron Watt cited the sharp decline in U.S. stock futures overnight and other risk assets. After a futures selloff, the S&P 500 benchmark traded down 2.2 percent early Friday.

Cameron Watt said he sees opportunities in credit markets and in quality emerging-market government debt, such as Mexico.

It is unlikely for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates this year, he said, a prediction that could boost those assets. For more defensive investors, he recommended focusing on stocks of established companies and those that pay healthy dividends.

Cameron Watt said the markets' fierce reaction came because investors piled into riskier financial assets and European currencies in the week leading up the British referendum.

"A lot of people followed the polls and went 'long' risk a week ago," he said, buying stocks and sterling. "The sharpness of the fall reflects the fact that people followed the polls and the outcome was not what they expected. If they stayed where they'd been a week ago there would be disruption but not as much disruption."

(This version of the story corrects Cameron Watt's title from "chief investment strategist" to "senior director" in paragraph 5.)

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Bill Trott)

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