Third Quarter GDP of 3.5% Surprises To the Upside
U.S. third quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, according to advanced estimates. This rise was higher than the 3.2 percent economists expected. Some economists ratcheted down their GDP number ahead of the release. Yesterday, Goldman Sachs lowered their estimate to 2.7 percent from 3 percent. So the 3.5 number comes as a pleasant surprise.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
increased.
Motor vehicle output, boosted by the "cash for clunker program", added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter GDP. This was a significant boost from the 0.19 percentage point addition to second-quarter GDP.
The 3.5 percent third quarter GDP is the advanced estimates and a "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 24, 2009.
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