Nomura Securities on U.S. Economics - Strong Job Gains Look Unsustainable
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Nomura Securities on U.S. Economics
Analyst, Aichi Amemiya, said, "Strong job gains seen earlier this year are unsustainable in a sub-par growth environment. We have argued that the strong job gains experienced over the past several quarters at least partly reflect a reversal of the massive layoffs in 2008 and 2009. Unless the pace of economic growth picks up in coming quarters, there is significant risk that the monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls could slow to the low-100k level -- or lower -- compared with the average 174k of the past 6 months. Indeed, we had forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 95k in May, while the actual reading came in weaker than our forecast, decelerating to 69k."
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Analyst, Aichi Amemiya, said, "Strong job gains seen earlier this year are unsustainable in a sub-par growth environment. We have argued that the strong job gains experienced over the past several quarters at least partly reflect a reversal of the massive layoffs in 2008 and 2009. Unless the pace of economic growth picks up in coming quarters, there is significant risk that the monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls could slow to the low-100k level -- or lower -- compared with the average 174k of the past 6 months. Indeed, we had forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 95k in May, while the actual reading came in weaker than our forecast, decelerating to 69k."
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