EIA Updates '09/'10 Oil, Nat Gas Forecasts: Sees US Crude Averaging $67/Barrel in 2H09, Sees US Retail Gasoline Peaking in July at $2.70/Gallon
Getting some interesting headlines out of the EIA:
- sees Q3 US oil use near flat, compared to a year ago, at 18.83 million barrels per day
- electricity demand expected to fall 7% in '09
- again revises down its '09 OPEC oil ouput, now at 28.49 million barrels per day
- coal production expected to fall 7% in '09
- sees Q4 US oil use down 1.2%, compared to a year ago, at 19.05 million barrels per day
- sees total US natural gas consumption falling 2.2% in '09
- Saudi Arabia's oil output for May was flat compared to April at 8.05 million barrels per day
- sees '10 US oil use up 1.6% compared to a year ago at 19.16 million barrels per day
- US crude oil is expected to average $67 per barrel in the second half of '09
- OPEC oil volumes to hit low in October, November and then rise
- US retail gasoline to peak in July at $2.70 per gallon
- industrial natural gas consumption expected to fall 8% in '09
- Q3 world oil use down 1.4% versus a year ago at 83.97 million barrels per day
- weaker dollar provides "upside risk" to oil forecast
- sees Q4 world oil use up 0.8% versus a year ago at 84.73 million barrels per day
- reiterates its view that OPEC surplus oil output capacity creates downside risk to prices
- sees OPEC surplus capacity of 4.65 million barrels per day in '09, 5.22 million barrels per day in '10
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