Vail Resorts (MTN) Misses Q4 EPS by 13c

September 26, 2016 6:49 AM EDT
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Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) reported Q4 EPS of ($1.80), $0.13 worse than the analyst estimate of ($1.67). Revenue for the quarter came in at $179.88 million versus the consensus estimate of $171.36 million.

On season pass sales, the company said, We are extremely pleased with our season pass sales to date. Through September 18, 2016, U.S. ski season pass sales increased approximately 24% in units and 29% in sales dollars, compared to the prior year period ended September 20, 2015. Our growth continues to be driven by our increasingly sophisticated and targeted marketing efforts to move destination guests into our season pass products, with this segment representing over half of this year's growth. As always, we do expect our season pass growth rates to decline through the end of our selling season, given that some of the increase is driven by our efforts to encourage guests to purchase their passes earlier in the year. Last year at this point in the year, we had sold approximately 60% of our season passes for the upcoming ski season, though we believe that figure may be higher this year, given the aforementioned efforts to move purchases earlier in the selling cycle.

Guidance:

Commenting on guidance for fiscal 2017, Rob Katz, Chief Executive Officer, said, "We estimate Resort Reported EBITDA for fiscal 2017 will be between $480 million and $510 million. We expect Resort EBITDA Margin to be approximately 29.7% in fiscal 2017, using the midpoint of the guidance range. This is an estimated 100 basis point increase over fiscal 2016. We estimate fiscal 2017 Real Estate Reported EBITDA to be between $2 million and $8 million. Net Real Estate Cash Flow is expected to be between $10 million and $20 million. Net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. is expected to be between $165.5 million and $194.5 million in fiscal 2017. All of these estimates are predicated on an exchange rate of $0.77 between the Australian Dollar and U.S. Dollar, related to the operations of Perisher in Australia. In addition, all of these estimates exclude any operating results from the pending acquisition of Whistler Blackcomb, including associated transaction-related and integration costs."

The following table reflects the forecasted guidance range for the Company's fiscal year ending July 31, 2017, for Reported EBITDA (after stock-based compensation expense) and reconciles such Reported EBITDA guidance to net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. guidance for fiscal 2017.

Fiscal 2017 Guidance

(In thousands)

For the Year Ending

July 31, 2017

Low End

Range

High End

Range

Mountain Reported EBITDA (1)

$

452,000

$

478,000

Lodging Reported EBITDA (2)

25,000

35,000

Resort Reported EBITDA (3)

480,000

510,000

Real Estate Reported EBITDA

2,000

8,000

Total Reported EBITDA

482,000

518,000

Depreciation and amortization

(167,000)

(161,000)

Loss on disposal of fixed assets and other, net

(1,700)

(500)

Change in fair value of contingent consideration (4)

Investment income, net

700

1,100

Interest expense

(44,000)

(41,000)

Income before provision for income taxes

270,000

316,600

Provision for income taxes

(104,600)

(122,400)

Net income

$

165,400

$

194,200

Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests

100

300

Net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc.

$

165,500

$

194,500

(1) Mountain Reported EBITDA includes approximately $15 million of stock-based compensation.

(2) Lodging Reported EBITDA includes approximately $3 million of stock-based compensation.

(3) The Company provides Reported EBITDA ranges for the Mountain and Lodging segments, as well as for the two combined. The low and high of the expected ranges provided for the Mountain and Lodging segments, while possible, do not sum to the high or low end of the Resort Reported EBITDA range provided because we do not expect or assume that we will hit the low or high end of both ranges.

(4) Our guidance excludes any change in the fair value of contingent consideration which is based upon, among other things, financial projections including long-term growth rates for Park City, which such change may be material.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Vail Resorts (MTN) click here.



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