Pali Research Downgrades Sprint Nextel (S) to Neutral; Sees Lowered Outlook
S Hot Sheet
Rating Summary:6 Buy, 14 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 16 | Down: 7 | New: 23
Pali Research downgrades Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) from Buy to Neutral.
Pali analyst says, "Downgrading Sprint because we do not think the pace of improvements in subscriber losses is enough to grow EBITDA...Sprint’s stock is not expensive at 5.1x our 2010 EBITDA estimate or a free cash flow yield of 15% but with EBITDA in perpetual decline and capital spending at a low, a valuation call is difficult to defend...Sprint has made steady progress in improving post-paid subscriber losses, including a strong start to Q4, but we do not believe the rate of the change or new cost cuts is fast enough to end EBITDA’s perpetual decline...We believe Sprint’s pre-paid business, a source of growth, has been negatively impacted by Leap and MetroPCS price promotions in Q4 and will face even more competition in 2010. Dan Schulman is likely to unveil a new strategy in Q1 but we expect pre-paid net adds to fall by 25% in 2010...While pre-paid net adds might offset the losses or even top post-paid losses in Q4 we expect the total customer base to decline by 700,000 in 2010...We lowered our 2010 post-paid ARPU estimate by nearly $2 primarily based on our concerns of competitive pricing on voice ARPU...We reduced our 2010 gross margin estimate by 200 basis points based on our concerns about pricing pressure and the costs associated with roaming and the Simply Everything rate plan...We increased our 2010 retention budget by $500 million to $1.5 billion which represents a decline compared to 2009 but reflects our expectation that the company will still need to invest to reduce industry high churn levels...We lowered our free cash estimate by $1.2 billion to $1.9 billion in 2010, reflecting $0.64 per share and a yield of 15%."
To see all the upgrades/downgrades on shares of S, visit our Analys Ratings page.
t Sprint Nextel Corporation offers wireless and wireline communications products and services to consumers, businesses, and government users in the United States and internationally.
Pali analyst says, "Downgrading Sprint because we do not think the pace of improvements in subscriber losses is enough to grow EBITDA...Sprint’s stock is not expensive at 5.1x our 2010 EBITDA estimate or a free cash flow yield of 15% but with EBITDA in perpetual decline and capital spending at a low, a valuation call is difficult to defend...Sprint has made steady progress in improving post-paid subscriber losses, including a strong start to Q4, but we do not believe the rate of the change or new cost cuts is fast enough to end EBITDA’s perpetual decline...We believe Sprint’s pre-paid business, a source of growth, has been negatively impacted by Leap and MetroPCS price promotions in Q4 and will face even more competition in 2010. Dan Schulman is likely to unveil a new strategy in Q1 but we expect pre-paid net adds to fall by 25% in 2010...While pre-paid net adds might offset the losses or even top post-paid losses in Q4 we expect the total customer base to decline by 700,000 in 2010...We lowered our 2010 post-paid ARPU estimate by nearly $2 primarily based on our concerns of competitive pricing on voice ARPU...We reduced our 2010 gross margin estimate by 200 basis points based on our concerns about pricing pressure and the costs associated with roaming and the Simply Everything rate plan...We increased our 2010 retention budget by $500 million to $1.5 billion which represents a decline compared to 2009 but reflects our expectation that the company will still need to invest to reduce industry high churn levels...We lowered our free cash estimate by $1.2 billion to $1.9 billion in 2010, reflecting $0.64 per share and a yield of 15%."
To see all the upgrades/downgrades on shares of S, visit our Analys Ratings page.
t Sprint Nextel Corporation offers wireless and wireline communications products and services to consumers, businesses, and government users in the United States and internationally.
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