PotashCorp (POT) Reports In-Line Q2 EPS, to Cut Dividend

PotashCorp (NYSE: POT) reported Q2 EPS of $0.18, in-line with the analyst estimate of $0.18. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.05 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.18 billion.

GUIDANCE:

PotashCorp sees FY2016 EPS of $0.40-$0.55, versus the consensus of $0.63.

PotashCorp sees Q3 2016 EPS of $0.05-$0.10, versus the consensus of $0.14.

Potash Market Outlook

Following a prolonged period of market uncertainty and weakening fundamentals, we believe potash markets have reached their low point. Recently settled contracts in China and India and a reduction in inventory throughout the supply chain over the last six months are expected to support a more constructive environment. Much like recoveries seen after previous periods of delayed contracts, we anticipate stronger buyer engagement to support demand through the second half of 2016 with full-year estimates of 58-61 million tonnes.

In North America, we anticipate improved affordability will help support deliveries for the rest of 2016. We expect shipments for the full year in the range of 9.2-9.7 million tonnes, up from the prior quarter's estimate and above 2015's total.

In Latin America, favorable crop economics and agronomic need are expected to push 2016 shipments to 10.8-11.3 million tonnes – slightly above 2015 totals and in line with our previous guidance range.

In China, we expect recently settled contracts and strong underlying consumption to support 2016 shipments in the range of 13.5-14.5 million tonnes, consistent with our previous estimates, but below 2015's record levels. While contract negotiations are ongoing, Canpotex expects to deliver tonnage to its Chinese customers in the second half of 2016.

In India, we anticipate that an improved monsoon and lower farm retail prices will support improved potash consumption for the rest of the year, but due to weaker first-half deliveries, we have lowered our 2016 shipment estimate to a range of 3.7-4.2 million tonnes. Canpotex has reached agreements with its customers in India for shipments over the next three months with deliveries expected to begin in the weeks ahead.

In Other Asian markets, adverse weather conditions and cautious buying patterns during the first half are expected to result in demand of 8.3-8.7 million tonnes for the full year, below our previous expectations and 2015's total as well.

Financial Outlook

While markets have stabilized in recent weeks and we continue to forecast our 2016 potash sales volumes in the range of 8.3-8.8 million tonnes, lower prices earlier in the year are expected to weigh on our results for the remainder of 2016. We now expect potash gross margin to be in the range of $400-$600 million.

Similarly, we anticipate a weaker price environment to negatively impact our nitrogen and phosphate segments through the rest of 2016. We have lowered our combined nitrogen and phosphate gross margin guidance for the year to a range of $400-$550 million.

Lower earnings have reduced our expected provincial mining and other taxes for 2016, now forecast in the range of 23-26 percent of potash gross margin (excluding $32 million of New Brunswick severance costs). Additionally, our effective income tax rate is expected to fall to a range of 16-18 percent given reduced earnings and a greater proportion of income from lower-tax jurisdictions.

Anticipated selling and administrative expenses for the year have been lowered to a range of $220-$230 million. Due to the recent strength of the Canadian dollar, we have revised our full-year foreign exchange rate assumption to CDN$1.32 per US dollar.

As a result of the noted changes, we have lowered our full-year 2016 earnings guidance to $0.40-$0.55 per share, including notable charges through the first half of $0.11 per share. For the third quarter, we forecast a range of $0.05-$0.10 per share. We also intend to reduce our quarterly dividend from $0.25 per share to $0.10 per share commencing with the declaration of our next dividend in September.

All annual guidance numbers – including those noted above – are outlined in the table below.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on PotashCorp (POT) click here.

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