Moody's Raises Outlook on Realogy (RLGY) to Positive; Sees Deleveraging in 2015-16 Sep 2, 2014 05:00PM

Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed the credit ratings of Realogy Holdings (NYSE: RLGY), including the B2 Corporate Family rating ("CFR"), B2-PD Probability of Default rating ("PDR"), Ba3 senior secured 1st lien, B3 senior secured 1.5 lien and Caa1 senior unsecured ratings. The speculative grade liquidity rating was affirmed at SGL-2. The ratings outlook was revised to positive from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"We expect Realogy to apply free cash flow to reduce debt in 2015 and 2016, leading to improved financial metrics, although acquisitions and uncertain existing home sales prospects could slow the pace," noted Edmond DeForest, Moody's Senior Credit Officer.

The rating affirmations reflect Moody's expectation of 2% to 4% annual revenue growth and the application of free cash flow of at least $300 million toward debt reduction and acquisitions. High cost fixed rate bonds become callable in 2015 and 2016, and refinancing or repaying them would impact both earnings and free cash flow positively. Moody's modest revenue growth expectations are limited by current residential real estate brokerage market conditions and risks, including limited inventory, strict mortgage finance criteria, declining participation of non-traditional cash buyers (private equity) and tepid improvement in employment and wages. Better than anticipated revenue growth driven by some combination of rising existing unit home sales and average prices, mortgage finance market improvements, the return of the first time buyer and broker count increases could lead to higher ratings. Liquidity is considered good.

The positive ratings outlook reflects Moody's anticipation that Debt to EBITDA (all financial metrics reflect Moody's standard adjustments) will improve to about 5 times over the next year from modest EBITDA growth and expected debt repayment. The rating outlook incorporates the expectation that Realogy may use a portion of its free cash flow to purchase brokerage operations or other related residential real estate businesses. An upgrade is possible if Moody's comes to expect revenue growth above 5% and free cash flow above $400 million to fuel accelerated debt repayment, leading to expectations for debt to EBITDA approaching 4.5 times and free cash flow to debt sustained above 8%. The ratings could be downgraded if revenue or free cash flow decline such that Moody's anticipates debt to EBITDA will remain above 6 times and free cash flow below $100 million.

Affirmations:

....Corporate Family Rating, B2

....Probability of Default Rating, B2-PD

....Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating, SGL-2

....Senior Secured 1st Lien, Ba3 (LGD2)

....Senior Secured 1.5 Lien, B3 (LGD5)

.Senior Unsecured, Caa1 (LGD5)

Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed to Positive from Stable

The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Business & Consumer Service Industry Rating Methodology published in October 2010. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.


Moody's Places Crown Holdings (CCK) on Review for Downgrade Following EMPAQUE Acquisition News Sep 2, 2014 03:32PM

Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") placed the Ba1 corporate family, Ba1-PD probability of default and other instrument ratings of Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK) under review for downgrade.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The review follows Crown's announcement that it entered into an agreement to acquire EMPAQUE, a leading Mexican manufacturer of aluminum cans and ends, bottle caps and glass bottles for the beverage industry, from Heineken N.V., in a cash transaction value at $1.225 billion. The acquisition, which is subject to customary closing conditions, including competition authority approval, is expected to close by year end 2014. Financing has been committed in support of the transaction from Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

EMPAQUE is based in Monterrey, Mexico and currently operates two beverage can plants, a plant that manufacturers beverage can ends and aluminum closures and bottle caps and a glass bottle plant and services facility. Projected 2014 sales and EBITDA are approximately $700 million and $150 million, respectively.

Moody's review will focus on the final capital structure, potential synergies, the integration plan, and the company's commitment to dedicating free cash flow to debt reduction.

Moody's placed the following ratings under review for downgrade:

Crown Holdings, Inc.

-Corporate family rating, Ba1

-Probability of default rating, Ba1-PD

Crown Americas, LLC

-$450 million US Revolving Credit Facility due December 2018, Baa2 (LGD 2)

-$800 million Term Loan A due December 2018, Baa2 (LGD 2)

-$362 million Farm Credit Term Loan due December 2019, Baa2 (LGD 2)

-$700 million 6.25% senior unsecured notes due February 2021, Ba2 (LGD 5)

-$1,000 million 4.50% senior unsecured notes due January 2023, Ba2 (LGD 5)

Crown Cork & Seal Company, Inc.

-$63.5 million 7.50% senior unsecured notes due December 2096, Ba3 (LGD 6)

-$350 million 7.375% senior unsecured notes due December 2026, Ba3 (LGD 6)

Crown European Holdings S.A.

-$700 million European revolving credit facility due December 2018, Baa2 (LGD 2)

-EUR700 million senior secured Term Loan A due December 2018, Baa2 (LGD 2)

-EUR650 million 4.0% senior unsecured notes due July 2022 Ba1 (LGD 3)

Crown Metal Packaging Canada L.P.

-$50 million Canadian revolving credit facility due December 2018, Baa2 (LGD 2)

The rating outlook is revised to rating under review for downgrade from stable.


S&P Keeps Dollar General (DG) at CreditWatch Negative Following Revised Bid for Family Dollar (FDO) Sep 2, 2014 12:30PM

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said its ratings on Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG), including the 'BBB-' corporate credit rating and 'BBB-' issue-level ratings on the company's senior unsecured debt, remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, where we placed them on Aug. 18, 2014.

"Dollar General announced a higher bid for Family Dollar today of $80 per share in cash, up from the original $78.50 offer made about two weeks ago," said credit analyst Diya Iyer. "It also increased the number of stores it would be willing to agree to divest to 1,500 from the original 700 if ordered by the Federal Trade Commission, and has agreed to pay a $500 million reverse break-up fee to Family Dollar relating to antitrust matters."

We anticipate further potential back and forth as Dollar General says it will consider taking its proposal directly to Family Dollar shareholders if the company refuses to engage regarding the revised proposal. We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement closer to the final outcome of this bidding process. At that time, should this merger occur we will evaluate the business and financial impact of the finalized transaction, the capital structure details, and management's financial policies and strategic plans for the combined entity.


Moody's Lowers OI S.A. (OIBR) to 'Ba1'; Notes Reduced Financial Flexibility, Weak Credit Metrics Sep 2, 2014 11:29AM

Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has assigned a Ba1 corporate family rating to OI S.A. (NYSE: OIBR) based on the company's reduced financial flexibility and weak credit metrics, which Moody's believes will result in a weakening of Oi's competitive position. Oi has articulated plans to reduce capital spending and may not fully participate in the upcoming 4G spectrum auction in Brazil. In addition, Oi could face operational, competitive or financial challenges related to the quickly evolving competitive environment, which includes an opportunity for consolidation through M&A. Moody's believes that Oi's base business in Brazil faces margin pressure from an unfavorable product mix shift to pay TV and broadband and the price pressure inherent in its value segment target market. In Portugal, Moody's expects continued revenue weakness and margin pressure due to competition and the same unfavorable product mix shift. Oi has detailed operational plans to offset this margin pressure through expense savings initiatives, which Moody's estimates will result in a modest improvement in credit metrics. However, Moody's estimates that leverage will remain above 4.5x (Moody's adjusted) and the company will continue to consume cash until at least 2016.

As part of this rating action, Moody's has also downgraded the ratings on unsecured debt at Oi SA to Ba2, one notch below the corporate family rating due to their junior position in the capital structure. The company has significant indebtedness at subsidiary holding companies which have a priority claim on the majority of operating cash flows.

Moody's has also downgraded unsecured debt at Portugal Telecom International Finance, BV to Ba2, also one notch below the CFR. Moody's believes that these notes are junior to other debt at PT Portugal SGPS SA and are pari passu to unsecured debt at to the parent and guarantor, Oi SA.

Moody's has downgraded three specific note issuances at Oi SA which benefit from a subsidiary guarantee from Telemar Norte Leste SA (Telemar) to Ba1. These three issuances, the 5.5% US$ notes due 2020, the 9.5% US$ notes due 2019 and the 5.125% EUR notes due 2017 were originally issued by Telemar but transferred to Oi SA. Moody's believes that the Telemar guarantee is sufficient to differentiate the creditworthiness of these issuances versus other unsecured obligations of Oi SA.

Lastly, Moody's has withdrawn all ratings for Telemar Participacoes S.A. upon repayment of all debt following the recent recapitalization transaction. These actions conclude the review for downgrade initiated on July 17, 2014.

Oi's negative outlook reflects its ongoing operational and strategic challenges and the uncertainty and distractions related to its recent investment loss at the Portugal Telecom subsidiary.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Ratings withdrawn:

Issuer: Telemar ParticipaƧƵes S.A.

- Senior unsecured

Issuer: Oi S.A.

- Issuer rating

Ratings assigned:

Issuer: Oi S.A.

- Corporate Family Rating: Ba1

Ratings downgraded:

Issuer: Oi S.A.

- USD 1,003 mln GLOBAL BONDS due 2017: to Ba1 from Baa3

- USD 142 mln GLOBAL BONDS due 2019: to Ba1 from Baa3

- USD 1,787 mln GLOBAL BONDS due 2020: to Ba1 from Baa3

- USD 483 mln GLOBAL BONDS due 2016: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 1,500 mln GLOBAL NOTES due 2022: to Ba2 from Baa3

Issuer: Portugal Telecom International Finance B.V.

- BACKED Senior Unsecured MTN: to (P) Ba2 from (P) Baa3

- USD 802 mln GTD EURO MTNS due 2016: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 334mln GTD EURO MTNS due 2017: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 669mln GTD GLOBAL MTNS due 2017: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 1,003mln GTD EURO MTNS due 2018: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 66mln GTD FLT RT EURO MTNS due 2019: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 1,003mln GTD EURO MTNS due 2019: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 1,338mln GTD EURO MTNS due 2020: to Ba2 from Baa3

- USD 669mln GTD EURO MTNS due 2025: to Ba2 from Baa3

The outlook for all ratings is negative

Oi's Ba1 corporate family rating reflects its scale, geographic diversity, broad asset base and network coverage and strong margins. These strengths are offset by the company's challenges to upgrade its network in Brazil to meet shifting consumer demand, the highly competitive markets in both Brazil and Portugal, the margin pressure it faces from an unfavorable product mix shift and the company's limited financial flexibility. Moody's forecasts Oi's leverage will approach 5x (Moody's adjusted) at year-end 2014 and fall towards 4.5x (Moody's adjusted) at year end 2016. Moody's expects Oi to continue to consume cash through 2016.

Oi's recent merger with Portugal Telecom succeeded in simplifying its equity ownership, dramatically reduced its dividend commitment and raised a large amount of equity capital to reduce debt. However, the unexpected commercial paper investment lost by PT has resulted in higher consolidated leverage for Oi. The R$3 billion loss has also impacted Oi's ability to raise capital which may force the company to cut capital investment further and Moody's believes it may influence Oi's decision on whether to participate in the upcoming 4G spectrum auction. These actions to reduce network investment would negatively impact Oi's competitive position and would occur at exactly the wrong time for the company. Oi's main competitors, Telefonica Brazil and America Movil remain well capitalized and are investing heavily in Brazil for growth, both organically with capex and on spectrum and through M&A.

Moody's believes that Oi has adequate liquidity to meet its obligations over the next 12 to 18 months. Moody's forecasts that Oi will continue to consume cash through 2016, excluding any potential spectrum purchases. Oi had approximately R$6 billion in cash at June 30 and access to approximately R$7.5 billion in comlnitted credit facilities. The company has upcoming maturities of R$5.5b in 2014 and R$3.4 billion in 2015. Oi's debt covenants include a 4x leverage maintenance test. The company expects to maintain cushion under this covenant as it measures EBITDA including the gains from asset disposals. Moody's views this as a material weakness over the longer term as it could motivate management to sell assets to avoid a covenant breach. However, the company's planned tower sale which will close in 4Q'14 will provide near term covenant cushion for the twelve month measurement period starting in 4Q.

Moody's rates unsecured debt at Oi S.A. Ba2, one notch below the corporate family rating due to its junior position in the capital structure. Certain note issuances at Oi (the 5.5% US$ notes due 2020, the 9.5% US$ notes due 2019 and the 5.125% EUR notes due 2017) which benefit from an upstream guarantee from its main Brazilian subsidiary Telemar Norte Leste S.A. (Telemar) are rated Ba1 reflecting their priority claim on approximately two thirds of Oi's Brazilian operating cash flows and assets. Moody's rates the unsecured debt at Portugal Telecom International Finance B.V. (PTIF) Ba2, also one notch below the CFR due to their junior claim on the cash flows of the Portugal subsidiary and the significant indebtedness at PT Portugal SGPS SA which is senior to PTIF. The notes at PTIF do benefit from a guarantee from Oi SA.

Moody's could lower Oi's ratings further if leverage remains above 4.5x (Moody's adjusted) for an extended period or if the company is not on a trajectory to produce sustainable positive free cash flow. Oi's ratings could be upgraded if leverage can be sustained comfortably below 4x (Moody's adjusted) and the company produces sustained positive free cash flow. In addition, an upgrade would be predicated upon the company's willingness and ability to continue investing (both network capex and spectrum acquisition) at a level which will improve its competitive position. Alternatively, Moody's could consider an upgrade if the company's asset-light strategy is successful in retaining market share and result in EBITDA growth such that it meets the financial metrics above.


Good Competitive Position, Improved Leverage, Strong Capitalization Benefit StanCorp Financial Group (SFG) - Fitch Aug 29, 2014 03:06PM

Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of StanCorp Financial Group (NYSE: SFG) at 'BBB+' and the Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings of its subsidiaries, Standard Insurance Company and Standard Life Insurance Company of New York at 'A'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this release.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Today's affirmation reflects SFG's improved operating performance in 2013, good competitive position in the group life and disability market, strong capitalization and improved financial leverage. The company's ratings also reflect continued challenges in terms of its overall operating profitability in a very competitive market environment, with persistently low market interest rates and poor economic conditions, which has resulted in slow employment growth and adverse claims experience in recent years.

SFG's operating performance improved significantly in 2013 after several years of declining performance driven by an intense competitive environment and poor economic conditions. SFG reported pretax operating income of $329 million in 2013, up from $192 million in 2012. In the first half of 2014, the company reported pretax operating income of $118 million, down from $143 million for the same period in 2013, with the decline driven by lower group insurance premiums, reduced investment income and increased operating expenses. The benefit ratio for the company's group insurance business, its primary earnings driver, was 78.9% in 2013, down significantly from 83.9% in 2012. For the first six months of 2014, the group insurance benefit ratio was 81.4%, down from 82.1% for the same period in 2013.

SFG's statutory total adjusted capital increased 8% in 2013 to $1.49 billion, and the NAIC risk based capital ratio of its insurance subsidiaries improved to 398% from 364% in 2012. Fitch estimates the company's RBC ratio receives a benefit of approximately 40 percentage points from a reinsurance agreement executed at the end of the 2011 and expanded in 2012.

SFG's ratings are supported by the company's solid balance sheet fundamentals and solid competitive position in the U.S. group insurance market. The company's balance sheet fundamentals reflect strong asset quality, good risk adjusted capitalization, and reasonable financial leverage. SFG's total financing and commitments ratio was approximately 0.3 times (x) and financial leverage was 20% at June 30, 2014.

Fitch believes that SFG's insurance subsidiaries maintain a high-quality bond portfolio. Below investment grade (BIG) bonds accounted for only 6% of the fixed maturity portfolio or a low 29% of total adjusted capital (TAC) at June 30, 2014. Market values of SFG's fixed maturity investments reflect the low interest rate environment and good quality portfolio, with gross unrealized losses $21 million and gross unrealized gains $473 million at June 30, 2014.

While SFG's commercial mortgage portfolio allocation of approximately 43% of total statutory invested assets at June 30, 2014, is much higher than the industry average, Fitch believes it is complementary to the company's stable liability structure, despite its lower liquidity relative to publicly traded bonds. Commercial mortgage loan loss experience, although heightened during the financial crisis, has improved significantly in recent years and remains in line with Fitch's overall loss expectations.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The key rating triggers that could result in an upgrade include:
--A substantial increase in run-rate risk-adjusted capital above 350%, with no significant deterioration in capital quality;
--A long-term improving trend in the group benefit ratio substantially below its historic baseline of about 76%.

The key rating triggers that could result in a downgrade include:
--A prolonged deterioration in the company's group benefit ratio above the 2011 level of 83%;
--An increase in financial leverage above 30%;
--GAAP-based interest coverage below 6x for an extended period of time;
--A decrease in RBC below 300%, or a significant decrease in the quality of capital supporting the company's RBC;
--A significant deterioration in the performance of the company's commercial mortgage loan portfolio.

Fitch affirms the following ratings with a Stable Outlook:

StanCorp Financial Group
--IDR at 'BBB+';
--$250 million 5.000% senior notes due Aug. 15, 2022 at 'BBB';
--60-year $253 million junior subordinated debt due June 1, 2067 at 'BB+'.

Standard Insurance Company
--IFS rating at 'A'.

Standard Life Insurance Co. of New York
--IFS rating at 'A'.


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