Grubb & Ellis (GBE) Releases '09 Global Real Estate Forecast; Sees 'Challenging' Year for Commercial Real Estate

January 5, 2009 10:54 AM EST

Grubb & Ellis Company (NYSE: GBE) today released its 2009 Global Real Estate Forecast, which indicates that 2009 will be a challenging year for commercial real estate with the economy starting the year 13 months into what may become the longest recession since the 1930s.

"The economy will struggle in 2009, which will dampen demand for all product types, resulting in negative absorption and increased vacancy," said Robert Bach, senior vice president, chief economist of Grubb & Ellis. "We expect total payroll job losses in the range of 1 to 2 million in 2009 on top of the 2+ million in 2008. GDP is likely to shrink by 1 percent in 2009, compared with growth of 1.3 percent and 2 percent in 2008 and 2007, respectively."

The investment market, which saw transaction volume plummet in 2008 as the financial markets collapsed and the credit markets froze, is expected to see a 15 percent increase in sales volume in 2009 as distressed properties are brought to market, particularly those acquired in the past couple of years with floating rate debt. Loan delinquencies and foreclosures will increase with more properties returning to lenders, who will be anxious to sell them. Debt capital will remain expensive and tight in 2009, but more of it will be available than in 2008, and there will be a slow increase in equity capital flowing into the market from private, institutional and offshore investors waiting on the sidelines. The coming year should be more active as the gap between buyers and sellers gradually narrows, with sellers making up most of that difference.

Debt will be the hot investment type in 2009. Investments could be made in CMBS, collateralized debt obligations or funds investing in these assets. Or debt investments could be made at the property level with owners seeking to refinance their properties. More equity investments will be made as well in 2009 as investors holding an estimated $300 to $400 billion in institutional, private and offshore equity begin to deploy their capital in response to falling prices.

The outlook is equally challenging for global markets, both developed and emerging. The previous contention that emerging markets would largely escape the financial crises in North America and Europe looks to be overly optimistic. This will not be an ordinary downturn, but rather a structural correction in global capital markets that will impact every sector of the economy and real estate market.

One benefit of the global market correction has been the rapid evaporation of inflationary pressures in most key economies. The decline in inflation has left governments less reticent in using interest rates as a weapon in the battle to stave off sharp economic and commercial decline.

Grubb & Ellis Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the commercial real estate services sector in the United States and internationally.

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