American Airlines (AAL) Load Factor Fell 2.6 Points in Oct. 2016; Sees Q4 TRASM Down 0.5% - 2.5%

November 9, 2016 8:02 AM EST

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American Airlines Group (Nasdaq: AAL) reported October and year-to-date 2016 traffic results.

American Airlines Group’s total revenue passenger miles (RPMs) were 18.4 billion, down 2.6 percent versus October 2015. Total capacity was 22.3 billion available seat miles (ASMs), up 0.4 percent versus October 2015. Total passenger load factor was 82.6 percent, down 2.6 percentage points versus October 2015.

The Company expects its fourth quarter 2016 total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) to be down approximately 0.5 to 2.5 percent year-over-year. In addition, the Company expects its fourth quarter pre-tax margin excluding special items[1] to be between 5 and 7 percent. TRASM has improved from prior guidance of down 1 to 3 percent and pre-tax margin has improved from prior guidance of 4 to 6 percent due primarily to improving yields and lower estimated fuel prices resulting from the recent decline in crude oil prices.

The following summarizes American Airlines Group traffic results for the month and year-to-date ended October 31, 2016, and 2015, consisting of mainline-operated flights, wholly owned regional subsidiaries and operating results from capacity purchase agreements.

American Airlines Group Traffic Results
October Year to Date
2016 2015 Change 2016 2015 Change
Revenue Passenger Miles (000)
Domestic 10,377,559 10,880,519 (4.6)% 107,672,699 107,894,114 (0.2)%
Atlantic 2,541,648 2,770,523 (8.3)% 24,248,861 25,424,656 (4.6)%
Latin America 2,159,032 2,313,647 (6.7)% 25,016,392 25,986,366 (3.7)%
Pacific 1,273,401 937,449 35.8 % 11,032,882 8,744,781 26.2 %
International 5,974,081 6,021,619 (0.8)% 60,298,135 60,155,803 0.2 %
Mainline 16,351,640 16,902,138 (3.3)% 167,970,834 168,049,917 - %
Regional 2,097,650 2,041,149 2.8 % 20,503,432 19,770,355 3.7 %
Total Revenue Passenger Miles 18,449,290 18,943,287 (2.6)% 188,474,266 187,820,272 0.3 %
Available Seat Miles (000)
Domestic 12,111,680 12,327,073 (1.7)% 126,406,041 125,202,385 1.0 %
Atlantic 3,390,015 3,436,666 (1.4)% 32,493,082 32,511,401 (0.1)%
Latin America 2,629,071 2,877,302 (8.6)% 31,522,763 32,907,662 (4.2)%
Pacific 1,516,061 1,113,709 36.1 % 13,210,365 10,365,053 27.5 %
International 7,535,147 7,427,677 1.4 % 77,226,210 75,784,116 1.9 %
Mainline 19,646,827 19,754,750 (0.5)% 203,632,251 200,986,501 1.3 %
Regional 2,685,522 2,482,181 8.2 % 26,426,662 24,532,650 7.7 %
Total Available Seat Miles 22,332,349 22,236,931 0.4 % 230,058,913 225,519,151 2.0 %
Load Factor (%)
Domestic 85.7 88.3 (2.6)pts 85.2 86.2 (1.0)pts
Atlantic 75.0 80.6 (5.6)pts 74.6 78.2 (3.6)pts
Latin America 82.1 80.4 1.7 pts 79.4 79.0 0.4 pts
Pacific 84.0 84.2 (0.2)pts 83.5 84.4 (0.9)pts
International 79.3 81.1 (1.8)pts 78.1 79.4 (1.3)pts
Mainline 83.2 85.6 (2.4)pts 82.5 83.6 (1.1)pts
Regional 78.1 82.2 (4.1)pts 77.6 80.6 (3.0)pts
Total Load Factor 82.6 85.2 (2.6)pts 81.9 83.3 (1.4)pts
Enplanements
Mainline 11,797,433 12,458,609 (5.3)% 121,627,529 123,141,539 (1.2)%
Regional 4,627,674 4,765,689 (2.9)% 45,535,495 45,798,061 (0.6)%
Total Enplanements 16,425,107 17,224,298 (4.6)% 167,163,024 168,939,600 (1.1)%
System Cargo Ton Miles (000) 238,353 207,957 14.6 % 1,992,032 1,924,216 3.5 %
Notes:
1)Canada, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands are included in the domestic results.
2)Latin America numbers include the Caribbean.
3 )Regional includes wholly owned subsidiaries and operating results from capacity purchase carriers.


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