FBR Capital Upgrades FormFactor (FORM) to Outperform; Positive Ahead of Q3 Earnings

October 28, 2009 7:23 AM EDT

FBR Capital upgrades FormFactor (Nasdaq: FORM) from Market Perform to Outperform. Price target $25.

FBR analyst says, "We introduce our CY11 pro forma EPS estimate of $1.09, raise our price target from $19 to $25, and upgrade FORM shares to Outperform into the 3Q earnings report, which will be released today after the close. We expect FORM to meet our 3Q above-consensus estimates. Although the company could follow the past few quarters' tradition and not provide guidance, we view the recent 30%-plus correction in the stock as already dialing in the risk of downward adjustment to consensus' 4Q revenue estimate. Therefore, we encourage investors to consider the following factors when evaluating the risk/reward profile: (1) The advanced probe card market (FORM's core market) is expected to grow six times faster than the legacy probe card market, exceeding $1B by CY11 (more than doubling from CY09 through CY11). (2) FORM's design wins from late last year and early this year are beginning to lead to material revenues. (3) Migration from DDR2 to DDR3, combined with migration to smaller technology nodes, could, in our view, lead to a TAM of at least $800M for just the commodity DRAM part of the advanced probe card market. (4) Mobile DRAM, going forward, could provide FORM with an additional $40M/year of revenues. (5) NAND-related revenues will be incremental and material by 2H10."

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