David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: Not Quite Dead Yet
After a couple weeks of selling and a lot of hullabaloo about the economic recovery being dead on arrival, the bulls announced yesterday that they, like the recovery, aren’t quite dead yet. And while the slightly better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite got most of the credit in the popular press for the triple digit dance higher, we’re of the mind that it was more the realization that a handful of disappointing economic reports does not a double-dip make.
The bulls also got a hand from some renewed talk about M&A activity. We learned that Brocade (BRCD) will put itself up for sale and that both Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Oracle (ORCL) are looking for acquisitions. In addition, there was talk about Emulex (ELX) and NetApp (NTAP) being acquired. And finally, Cisco (CSCO) CEO John Chambers said he sees acquisitions “heating up.” So, while M&A talk doesn’t produce higher prices for the market all by itself, it also doesn’t hurt. Let the games begin.
Speaking of things that don’t hurt the bulls, an upbeat call on the banks out of Goldman Sachs (GS) bolstered the banking indices yesterday. Goldman argued that the market has yet to recognize the “meaningful improvement in earnings power” at the large banks and that tangible assets have increased by almost 30%. But to be clear, they do favor the big banks over the regionals.
So, with the bulls on the ropes and Art Cashin suggesting that this thing could “crack wide open” to the downside, the bulls have to be feeling a little better after putting some space between them and the key support levels. While a bounce to the upside was certainly logical after the recent decline, we should keep in mind that the volume yesterday was uninspiring and there is resistance overhead to deal with. But for now it looks like the bulls are at least putting up a nice fight.
Turning to this morning, we don’t have any economic data on the calendar today, before the bell or otherwise. However, we will get the results from the Treasury’s auction this afternoon at 1:00 pm.
On the news front, it is worth noting that there is a lot of chatter this morning – all of which has been denied – about France, China, and Russia moving to stop using the U.S. dollar in oil transactions. Also, Australia raised their interest rates by 0.25% in response to the global economy resuming growth.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets are higher across the board. Crude futures are moving up with the latest quote showing oil trading higher by $1.12 to $71.53. On the interest rate front, we’ve got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.25%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.07%. And finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a higher open. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 70 points; the S&P’s are up about 8 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 11 points above fair value at the moment.
Upgrades/Downgrades/Brokerage Research:
America Movil (AMX) – Upgraded at BofA/Merrill, Citi
Repsol (REP) – Downgraded at Citi
Devon Energy (DVN) – Downgraded at Credit Suisse
Newfield Exploration (NFX) – Upgraded at Credit Suisse
PepsiCo (PEP) – Removed from Focus List at Credit Suisse
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – Upgraded at Credit Suisse
TJX Companies (TJX) – Added toBuy list at Goldman
Int’l Game Technology (IGT) – Removed fromBuy list at Goldman
Pactiv Corp (PTV) – Upgraded at Goldman
General Mills (GIS) – Upgraded at Morgan Stanley
Hartford Financial (HIG) – Upgraded at UBS
AFLAC (AFL) – Upgraded at UBS
National Financial Partners (NFP) – Downgraded at UBS
Corning (GLW) – Upgraded at UBS
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) – Downgraded at UBS
Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, TJX
Try smiling at everyone you meet today and until next time, “may the bulls be with you!”
Note: All earnings reports compared to Reuter’s consensus estimates
** For More of David Moenning’s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopStockPortfolios.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM’s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Stocks Mentioned
Related Entities
- Credit Suisse
- UBS
- ISM Non-Manufacturing
- Citi
- Morgan Stanley
- Banc of America
- John Chambers
- David Moenning
- Crude Oil
Sign up for StreetInsider Free!
Receive full access to all new and archived articles, unlimited portfolio tracking, e-mail alerts, custom newswires and RSS feeds - and more!
