Needham & Company on LED & Lighting: Growing More Cautious as Demand Reaches Seasonal Peak (AIXG, CREE, VECO)
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Up: 11 | Down: 35 | New: 23
Rating Summary:
13 Buy, 18 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 11 | Down: 35 | New: 23
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Needham & Company on LED & Lighting: Growing More Cautious as Demand Reaches Seasonal Peak
Analyst, Y. Edwin Mok, said, "Despite strong demand for LED in 2Q12 and utilization reaching 100% at some companies, we believe demand for LED devices will peak in 3Q12 and we are turning more cautious going into 2H12. Since the beginning of the year, LED demand has rebounded; however, it was largely driven by TV and mobile/tablet backlighting while demand in general lighting has been growing at a modest pace. We are concerned that seasonal build for TV will peak in 3Q12, resulting in a slowdown in 2H12. While prices have been stable in 2Q12 as demand has grown, we believe any softening of demand will lead to increased pricing pressures along the entire supply chain. Despite higher utilization rates in Taiwan, we believe excess MOCVD capacities in China will limit order rates for MOCVD tools in 2H12."
"While LED related stocks have already come down in the last 2 months, we expect the sell-side to adjust their model to reflect weaker demand trends, limiting near-term stock performance. Among names under coverage, we remain positive on Cree (Nasdaq: CREE) (Buy) for the longer-term, but are cutting our estimates and PT going into the F4Q12 (Jun) report in August. Additionally, we are lowering our estimates on AIXG (Nasdaq: AIXG) (Hold) and Veeco (Nasdaq: VECO) (Hold) and recommend investors remain on the sidelines on both names at this time."
For AIXG, Needham lowers FY12 EPS estimate from EUR0.19 to EUR0.05 and FY13 from EUR0.35 to EUR0.16. (Hold)
CREE's FY12 EPS Estimate cut from $1.08 to $1.01 and FY13 from $1.80 to $1.42. PT lowered from $35 to $28. (Buy)
VECO's FY12 EPS estimate cut from $1.63 to $1.44 and FY13 from $2.48 to $1.92. (Hold)
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Analyst, Y. Edwin Mok, said, "Despite strong demand for LED in 2Q12 and utilization reaching 100% at some companies, we believe demand for LED devices will peak in 3Q12 and we are turning more cautious going into 2H12. Since the beginning of the year, LED demand has rebounded; however, it was largely driven by TV and mobile/tablet backlighting while demand in general lighting has been growing at a modest pace. We are concerned that seasonal build for TV will peak in 3Q12, resulting in a slowdown in 2H12. While prices have been stable in 2Q12 as demand has grown, we believe any softening of demand will lead to increased pricing pressures along the entire supply chain. Despite higher utilization rates in Taiwan, we believe excess MOCVD capacities in China will limit order rates for MOCVD tools in 2H12."
"While LED related stocks have already come down in the last 2 months, we expect the sell-side to adjust their model to reflect weaker demand trends, limiting near-term stock performance. Among names under coverage, we remain positive on Cree (Nasdaq: CREE) (Buy) for the longer-term, but are cutting our estimates and PT going into the F4Q12 (Jun) report in August. Additionally, we are lowering our estimates on AIXG (Nasdaq: AIXG) (Hold) and Veeco (Nasdaq: VECO) (Hold) and recommend investors remain on the sidelines on both names at this time."
For AIXG, Needham lowers FY12 EPS estimate from EUR0.19 to EUR0.05 and FY13 from EUR0.35 to EUR0.16. (Hold)
CREE's FY12 EPS Estimate cut from $1.08 to $1.01 and FY13 from $1.80 to $1.42. PT lowered from $35 to $28. (Buy)
VECO's FY12 EPS estimate cut from $1.63 to $1.44 and FY13 from $2.48 to $1.92. (Hold)
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