Barclays Review of Strong U.S. Department Stores/Softline Retail March Sales: Questions on April
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Rating Summary:
10 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell
Rating Trend:
Down
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 12 | Down: 19 | New: 22
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Barclays Review of U.S. Department Stores March Sales
Analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "March benefited from a shift forward of Easter to the beginning of April from late April last year, as well as ongoing warm weather trends which now represent a tailwind for sales of early spring product. Macy's (NYSE: M) in particular noted a positive customer reaction to the spring assortment. Children's apparel was highlighted as a strong category by Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Target (NYSE: TGT), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI)."
On Individual Dept Stores:
Macy's (NYSE: M)(OW-rated) topped Barclays March sales estimates..Barclays raises PT from $40 to $45, maintains FY12 EPS estimate of $3.30 and FY13 of $3.65.'
Target (NYSE: TGT)(OW-rated): Barclays sees April SSS growth between 3-5%, raises Q1 EPS estimate from $0.98 to $1.08 and FY12 from $4.25 to $4.35.
On Softline Retail:
Barclays raises PT on The Gap (NYSE: GPS)(EW-rated) from $25 to $28, FY12 EPS estimate from $1.96 to $2.02 and FY13 from $2.12 to $2.18.
Limited (NYSE: LTD)(EW-rated): PT raised from $46 to $50, FY12/13 maintained at $2.95/$3.30.
PetSmart (Nasdaq: PETM)(EW-rated): PT raised from $58 to $60, FY12 EPS estimate raised from $3.10 to $3.16 and FY13 from $3.38 to $3.50.
Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST)(EW-rated): PT maintained at $58, but FY12 EPS raised from $3.29 to $3.32, FY13 kept at $3.57.
TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX)(OW-rated): PT maintained at $43; FY12 EPS raised from $2.34 to $2.38 and FY12 maintained at $2.55.
Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ)(EW-rated): PT maintained at $36: FY12/13 raised from $1.42/1.55 to $1.43/1.60.
Softline analyst, Stacy Pak, said, "The big questions now are how much sales were pulled forward due to the Easter shift and warm weather, and what will the impact be on April given the cooler forecast, other side of the Easter shift, and later Mother's Day? Our work suggests we've historically seen a 3-to-5-point average benefit to March and hit to April from the Easter shift and that Old Navy tends to experience an outsized impact."
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Analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "March benefited from a shift forward of Easter to the beginning of April from late April last year, as well as ongoing warm weather trends which now represent a tailwind for sales of early spring product. Macy's (NYSE: M) in particular noted a positive customer reaction to the spring assortment. Children's apparel was highlighted as a strong category by Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Target (NYSE: TGT), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI)."
On Individual Dept Stores:
Macy's (NYSE: M)(OW-rated) topped Barclays March sales estimates..Barclays raises PT from $40 to $45, maintains FY12 EPS estimate of $3.30 and FY13 of $3.65.'
Target (NYSE: TGT)(OW-rated): Barclays sees April SSS growth between 3-5%, raises Q1 EPS estimate from $0.98 to $1.08 and FY12 from $4.25 to $4.35.
On Softline Retail:
Barclays raises PT on The Gap (NYSE: GPS)(EW-rated) from $25 to $28, FY12 EPS estimate from $1.96 to $2.02 and FY13 from $2.12 to $2.18.
Limited (NYSE: LTD)(EW-rated): PT raised from $46 to $50, FY12/13 maintained at $2.95/$3.30.
PetSmart (Nasdaq: PETM)(EW-rated): PT raised from $58 to $60, FY12 EPS estimate raised from $3.10 to $3.16 and FY13 from $3.38 to $3.50.
Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST)(EW-rated): PT maintained at $58, but FY12 EPS raised from $3.29 to $3.32, FY13 kept at $3.57.
TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX)(OW-rated): PT maintained at $43; FY12 EPS raised from $2.34 to $2.38 and FY12 maintained at $2.55.
Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ)(EW-rated): PT maintained at $36: FY12/13 raised from $1.42/1.55 to $1.43/1.60.
Softline analyst, Stacy Pak, said, "The big questions now are how much sales were pulled forward due to the Easter shift and warm weather, and what will the impact be on April given the cooler forecast, other side of the Easter shift, and later Mother's Day? Our work suggests we've historically seen a 3-to-5-point average benefit to March and hit to April from the Easter shift and that Old Navy tends to experience an outsized impact."
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