Nomura Securities Lowers Estimates & PT on Invesco (IVZ); 'One-Off' Chunky Outflow

July 27, 2012 1:31 PM EDT Send to a Friend
Get Alerts IVZ Hot Sheet
Price: $33.36 -2%

Rating Summary:
    7 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 17 | Down: 20 | New: 29
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Nomura Securities maintains a 'Buy' on Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) price target of $25.00 (from $26.00).

Analyst, Glenn Schorr, said, "Challenging market weighed on IVZ’s flows ($4.9B LT outflows) and margins (as with most asset managers), but not the end of the world, given IVZ’s solid and consistent performance records, resilient investment management fees (revenue decline was mostly on performance and other fees), and continued growth in key products such as asset allocation strategies ($3B inflows). Yes, we think people will focus on the flows, but performance is good, margins are still 35%, the yield is ~3.5%, IVZ continues to buy back stock, and the stock has been beaten up (-22% vs. S&P -3% since 1Q12). We expect buybacks and investor support to kick in, given growth prospects and attractive valuation (10x our 2013E EPS). Net L-T outflows were $4.9B or ~3.4% organic decay ($3.2B active, $1.7B passive), which included a "one-off" chunky outflow ($3.2B institutional fixed income). Fund performance was solid and consistent with 73%, 73%, and 77% of assets beating peer averages on one, three, and five years, respectively."

FY12E EPS from $1.85 to $1.74; FY 13E EPS from $2.20 to $2.08.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Invesco click here. For more ratings news on Invesco click here.

Shares of Invesco closed at $20.91 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $14.52-$26.94.


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